Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Further signs of fiscal slippage suggest that peripheral euro-zone governments will fall short of their ambitious budget deficit targets for this year. 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spain's waiting game is a risky one So far at least, the Spanish Government’s decision to delay seeking a bail-out does not seem to have backfired. After all, Spanish government bond yields remain low by recent standards. But the... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt deleveraging continues Despite the ongoing euro-zone crisis, the looming fiscal cliff and a drop back in the value of their financial assets, US households actually increased their debts in the second quarter by $74bn at an... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Aug. 12) August’s poor public finances figures have further increased the chances that the deficit will significantly exceed the level specified in the fiscal plans. 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: fiscal slippage won’t spook bond markets Financial markets are unlikely to be spooked by signs of fiscal slippage in Poland – compared with the rest of Europe, the government’s finances are a picture of health. In fact, we think bond yields... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: much depends on IMF deal as fiscal challenges mount The fact that the Egyptian government intends to increase public sector employment in the next fiscal year adds to our view that its fiscal deficit target for 2012/13 is too optimistic. We think that... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Further glimmers of hope Last week’s developments bolstered hopes that the euro-zone has finally reached a “turning point”. Indeed, given the further falls in peripheral government bond yields, some optimists even questioned... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Still waiting for budget reforms in India The newly appointed Finance Minister has promised to get the public finances onto a more stable footing. But he has been slow to act and in the mean time the deficit has continued to widen. 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus The fiscal cliff – some scenarios We think there is a 70% chance that Congress will reach a last minute deal to prevent the $600bn of tax hikes and spending cuts that form the fiscal cliff from kicking in at the start of 2013. But... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the stimulus real? We can see no sign of a fresh stimulus in the government’s recent announcements that it has approved a large number of infrastructure projects. Most were already expected to go ahead and, while the... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the bazooka now in place? The German Court’s decision to allow the ESM to be ratified, together with the ECB’s earlier promise to meet ESM bond purchases with unlimited purchases of its own, suggests that a substantial... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Don't fret about prospect of lower US credit rating Today’s announcement by Moody’s that it will probably strip America of its AAA credit rating is not “new news” and shouldn’t cause any major waves in the bond market. The US fiscal position has been... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How successful was the auto subsidy? The government’s eco-car subsidy appears to have run its course. Although it provided a visible boost to car sales, which supported aggregate spending, the subsidy should not be given all the credit... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Orban scuppers IMF deal (again) Today’s statement by Hungarian PM Victor Orban that his government will reject the conditions attached to an IMF programme is unlikely to spell the end of negotiations between the two parties, but it... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa set to remain a regional underperformer Recent events in South Africa’s mining sector, while tragic, are also symptomatic of wider economic problems that are likely to mean the country falls short of achieving its significant growth... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate cut on the cards for next month Today’s post-MPC press conference gave the clearest sign yet that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is set to start cutting interest rates in order to counter the recent downturn in the economy. We... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
