Europe Economics Update Calls for secession are a blow to fiscal union hopes Calls for independence from the richest regions of Spain, Belgium and Italy threaten to blow big holes in the public finances of the three economies. And more fundamentally, growing public aversion to... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: fiscal monetisation to drive inflation higher There are some parallels between the money printing being undertaken by Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) and quantitative easing policies in the West. But in contrast to the developed economies... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US economy developing split personality The US economy appears to be developing a split personality. Households, seemingly oblivious to the scheduled jump in marginal tax rates that will reduce their after-tax income next year, are... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mariodona will have to swerve soon The fall in government bond yields after the ECB announced its new bond-buying programme has prompted suggestions that the plan may not actually need to be activated. But it is only a matter of time... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tax hikes won’t prevent inflation from falling The hikes in indirect taxes announced by the Turkish government over the past few weeks will not prevent inflation from falling further towards the end of this year. But even so, current account... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget doesn’t solve Portugal’s problems On the face of it, Portugal’s Budget for 2013 will enable it to meet the deficit targets set by the Troika and receive the rest of its bail-out funds. But public resistance to austerity and/or a sharp... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No end in sight for global austerity Whether or not you believe the IMF’s new estimates of the fiscal multiplier, budget cuts are due to intensify in advanced economies next year and will last longer than many had expected. 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria likely to miss fiscal target for 2013 The 2013 budget proposal unveiled by President Goodluck Jonathan today is predicated on reasonableassumptions of economic growth and contains sensible measures to rebalance spending away fromsubsidies... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Government spending cuts - myth or reality? In our latest UK Quarterly Review, we look at the heated issue of the Government’s spending cuts. Are they responsible for killing off the economic recovery as some have claimed? Or are they the “bare... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bigger fiscal multipliers highlight case for rejigging cuts One of the most attention-grabbing aspects of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook is its new, bigger estimates of the impact of fiscal consolidations on economic growth. At the very least, this... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary's austerity without growth isn’t working The raft of amendments to Hungary’s 2013 budget announced late last week contained not only fresh austerity measures, but also amended contentious policies that had previously been an obstacle to an... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the fiscal rules about to be broken? There is a significant chance that the OBR will judge that the Chancellor is on course to miss at least one of his fiscal rules when it revises its forecasts for the Autumn Statement. Rather than... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and the thorny issue of devaluation Egypt’s talks with the IMF over a financing package are set to get underway this month. There are a number of major stumbling blocks, the most contentious of which is whether Egypt is forced to... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget marks a small step forward for Greece By announcing fiscal measures to generate the €13.5bn of savings demanded by the Troika, the Greek Government has moved a step closer to gaining the next loan instalment from its bail-out package. But... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's latest fiscal plan likely to be only partly adopted If implemented, the recommendations of the Kelkar Commission would put India’s public finances on a far more stable footing. However, the government is unlikely to be able to adopt them in full. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico hedges its bets, again The Mexican government’s decision to hedge its oil revenues for next year will keep the fiscal position on a stable footing in the near-term. Nonetheless, a heavy reliance on oil revenues casts doubt... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
