Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External financing continues to trouble resource-poor countries Talks between Egypt and the IMF this month have focused attention back onto the external financing requirements of the region’s resource-poor economies. But so long as their oil-rich neighbours... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses halt investment ahead of the fiscal cliff The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested that businesses are increasingly putting on hold investment decisions just in case Congress allows the fiscal cliff to hit. There is a growing... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Crunch time looms for Greece Over the next couple of crucial weeks, we suspect that Greek and euro-zone policymakers will hatch a deal to prevent, at least temporarily, the collapse of Greece’s rescue package. But as always... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: populist policymaking raises default risk A recent ruling by a US court has raised questions over whether Argentina will be pushed into a fresh debt default. On closer inspection, the issue remains one of willingness to pay rather than... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct. 12) The latest Spanish public finances data, which show that Spain is struggling to meet its budget deficit targets, will increase the pressure on the Government to request a bail-out. 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia budget plans: still banking on high oil prices Russia’s draft budget for 2013-15 implies that fiscal policy will become far more restrictive over the next three years. But it is doubtful that the government will be able to stick to its plans to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan is fast approaching its own fiscal cliff The government is fast approaching a “fiscal cliff”. An extraordinary session of parliament is meeting from Monday (29th), in which the government will try to force the passage of deficit-covering... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Election going down to the wire Regardless of who wins the Presidential election, the chances of the victor having a compliant Congress appear to be fading fast. So even if Romney won, the most likely scenario is still that a deal... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the core softening its stance? Developments over the past week or so suggest that the core euro-zone governments’ attitudes towards the peripheral economies currently receiving bail-outs may be mellowing. But while this reduces the... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African bond markets shrug off deficit revisions The South African Finance Ministry today nudged up its forecasts for the fiscal deficit over the next three years, but we suspect that the budget shortfall may still surprise on the upside. The good... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Should we be worried about Argentina’s provincial debt? Fears that the ‘pesofication’ of foreign currency debt by one Argentine province earlier this month will lead to a wave of local government defaults are overdone. Even so, the provinces face a funding... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian government too optimistic on deficit reduction Earlier today we attended a meeting with Hungarian Minister of Economy, Zoltan Csefalvay. We left with the impression that the government’s plans for deficit reduction are still too optimistic and... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is a helicopter drop the answer? A so-called “helicopter drop” of money is generally seen as the nuclear option which will boost the economy if all else fails. However, it is not necessarily the radical step that it might seem. 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How would markets respond to a broken debt rule? There is a significant chance that the Office for Budget Responsibility judges in the Autumn Statement that the Chancellor is likely to miss his secondary target for debt as a share of GDP to be... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Sep.) September’s better than expected public finances figures will offer some cheer for the Chancellor. Nevertheless, it still looks like borrowing in 2012/13 will overshoot the OBR’s forecast. The dilemma... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Ukraine: walking a tightrope Ukraine’s large external financing requirement and its heavy dependency on industrial exports to Western Europe make it among the most vulnerable countries in Emerging Europe to a re-escalation of the... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
