US Economics Weekly $1trn coin not a realistic option The fanciful idea that the US Treasury could circumvent the debt ceiling by minting a $1trn platinum coin suddenly exploded in popularity last week. This is never going to happen. One question that... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Spending more just to stand still The announcement of the government’s ¥10.3 trillion supplementary budget on Friday has been widely welcomed. However, it is unlikely to provide the boost to the economy the Cabinet Office expects. In... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB keeps its head in the sand The ECB’s comments last week dealt a blow to any hopes that it might provide more support to the euro-zone economy. With financial market conditions improving, the Bank no longer seems to be... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update "Fiscal stimulus" just more of the same In announcing yet another fiscal stimulus package, heavy on public works spending and subsidies for popular projects, Japan’s new government is simply repeating what the others have done before. If... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slow start to 2013 in the US will hold back EMs The worst case scenarios associated with the US “fiscal cliff” have been avoided, but the US is still likely to get off to a slow start to the year. It will hold back growth in EMs, but it will not be... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Outlook brightens (a little) for Argentina in debt dispute Events have recently swung back in Argentina’s favour in its dispute with holdout bondholders. Despite this, there remains a significant risk of a default over the course of this year. What’s more... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Scottish independence mean for the remaining UK? We think that Scotland’s exit from the Union would be unlikely to benefit the rest of the UK and could even represent a net economic cost. The UK would probably retain some of the disadvantages of... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec. 12) The latest fiscal data support the view that both Italy and Spain will fail to meet their fiscal goals for 2012 as a whole. 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal cliff deal falls a long way short of what is needed The fiscal cliff deal approved by both Houses of Congress to avert most of the scheduled tax increases is better than nothing, but it didn’t include a provision to raise the debt ceiling, and the... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to 2013 In this final Weekly of the year we take a look ahead to some of main events and themes that will shape Japan’s economy in 2013. Key among these are the incoming LDP government’s first budget and the... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) GDP is still estimated to have risen strongly in Q3, but we already have plenty of evidence to suggest that the economy may have contracted in the fourth quarter. Indeed, the UK could already be in a... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will a deal on fiscal policy propel the US stock market higher? 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The US fiscal cliff: implications for Asia The nightmare scenario of the US Congress failing to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff would see growth in Asia’s most trade-dependent countries slow by up to 1 percentage point in 2013. 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Priorities for the new government At the time of writing, the outcome of the 16th December Lower House election is not yet clear. However, the dire Q4 Tankan survey, released on Friday, underlined the scale of the challenges facing... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Are Peru and Chile losing their fiscal discipline? Chile’s economy is currently in a sweet spot between strong growth and low inflation, and we do not expect any moves in interest rates in the near term. But to the extent that rates are changed next... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How long will the Greek relief last? The news that Greece will get its next and long-awaited bail-out loan payment within days will provide Greek and euro-zone policymakers with a bit of breathing space. But we doubt that this will bring... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
