Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Political stability needed to get Egypt's debt onto a stable path Continued unrest has led to a worsening of Egypt’s fiscal position over the past year or so and we estimate that fiscal tightening of 3% of GDP is needed just to stabilise the debt ratio. However... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More work needed to reduce budget deficit The latest projections from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office show that, despite recent efforts to control spending and boost revenues, the Federal budget deficit will remain close to 4% of... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Payroll tax hike to hit January incomes hard The expiry of the payroll tax cut will contribute to what could be a 3.5% m/m slump in personal disposable income in January. We expect any decline in real consumption to be pretty modest, however... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 still points to big problems While the recent slight reduction in TARGET2 imbalances echoes other signs of improvement in the euro-zone, they still point to serious underlying problems in the economy and banking sector. 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Confidence will soon rise back after payroll tax hike hit Consumer confidence may be as much as 20 points lower than otherwise due to the effects of the payroll tax hike. But as long as employment continues to rise, gasoline prices don’t increase too much... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal credibility starting to unravel Hopes that yet more fiscal stimulus will transform the prospects for Japan’s economy, or at least make a meaningful difference to GDP in the next year or so, are overdone. The government’s credibility... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan. 13) The latest fiscal news from the periphery suggests that Greece, Ireland and Portugal met their fiscal goals for 2012 as a whole. 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal deficit elimination goal may face longer delays An underperforming economy will make it tougher for the federal government to eliminate its budget deficit worth just over 1% of GDP. Although some headway has been made this year, weak underlying... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update LTRO repayments to give mixed signals The expected repayment of some ECB LTRO funding should add to signs that the region’s banking system is on the mend. But it will also underline the weakness of demand in the region and could fuel... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Dec.) December’s public finances data ended 2012 on a disappointing note. While the deficit in the last quarter of the fiscal year will be flattered by temporary factors, including the transfer of the Bank... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cypriot bail-out struggles continue The Troika and the Cypriot Government have reached a stalemate, with the latter refusing to agree to the terms for a vital bail-out. An agreement should be reached after next month’s election and... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal uncertainty likely to be an ongoing problem Regardless of how the current debt ceiling negotiations pan out, the bigger problem is that there has been an almost complete breakdown in the working relationship between both sides in Congress. As a... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Gathering momentum? Asian growth looks to have picked up late last year and is likely to fare well in the near term. However, growth in 2013-14 is unlikely to be strong due to lacklustre external demand and structural... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fiscal deficits squeezing investment in resource-poor economies With all eyes on Egypt’s currency crisis, it’s easy to forget the fiscal crisis hitting the resource-poor Arab countries at the same time. Gaping budget deficits are squeezing out investment and... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How is government spending affecting EM growth? In parts of the emerging market world, an increasingly pro-cyclical government spending bias threatens to contribute to a more volatile pattern of growth. Within Latin America there is a risk that... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi stimulus to help economy grow at healthy pace The rise in government spending announced in the Saudi budget for this year reinforces our view that supportive fiscal policy should enable the economy to continue to perform well despite a weak... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
