Europe Economics Focus Can Slovenia avoid a bail-out? In spite of Slovenia’s low public debt and small banks, the country is in a very precarious position given the scale of the rot in the banking sector. To avoid a bail-out, the Government will need to... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What does Abenomics mean for the rest of Asia? Hopes that the policies of Prime Minister Abe’s new government will transform the outlook for Japan’s economy have lifted sentiment in the country. This Weekly takes a look at the implications of... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: is fiscal policy really impotent? The debate over the role of policy stimulus in reviving Russia’s flagging economy has been given extra impetus over the past week by the release of the IMF’s latest Article IV report, which argues... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jun.) The improvement in the public finances in May was due to temporary factors. In any case, with borrowing still so high, the big picture is that years of austerity still lie ahead, as will be underlined... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian public finances remain in a precarious state We doubt that the new growth measures adopted by the Italian government will have much effect on the economy and still expect the 2013 budget deficit to be well above target. Based on this and Italy’s... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending Review to underline uphill battle facing recovery Next Wednesday’s Spending Review will essentially just flesh out how the cuts that have already been announced will be achieved. Nonetheless, the Government may use it to shift around its spending in... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's fiscal risks revisited The murky world of Brazil’s public finances has come under increased scrutiny in recent weeks, after ratings agency S&P downgraded the nation’s sovereign debt outlook. In this Watch we take a fresh... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out appears safe...for now We doubt that the recent bout of political uncertainty, coupled with concerns over the Government’s ability to meet the privatisation targets set by the Troika, poses a serious near-term threat to... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Tentative rise in tax revenues another sign of recovery A tentative pick-up in tax receipts has lent some support to the growing signs of economic recovery. While the improvement is so far modest, tax revenues tend to lag changes in economic activity, so... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The external adjustment has only just begun Most peripheral euro-zone economies have made impressive progress in narrowing their current account deficits. But so far this is only a correction in flows; theses economies have made little or no... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears of inflation and unrest to frustrate subsidy reform Subsidies are becoming increasingly unaffordable across the poorer parts of the MENA region. But the threat of higher inflation and social unrest is likely to frustrate efforts at subsidy reform. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the Troika learning from its mistakes? While the IMF conceded last week that mistakes were made in Greece’s 2010 bail-out programme, it suggested that earlier debt restructuring was the way forward rather than bigger bail-outs. Meanwhile... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery looking more like the real thing The positive run of economic news continued last week. Meanwhile, the Labour party’s shift in strategy underlines that fiscal consolidation will remain a defining feature beyond the election. 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latvia is still no role model for the euro-zone periphery Today’s convergence report by the EC, which gave the green light to Latvia to join the euro-zone in 2014, is likely to lead to further suggestions that Latvia serves as a role model of “internal... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's government finances need to be brought under control Ongoing political uncertainty has led to a sharp deterioration in the Egyptian government’s finances. The measures required to put them on a more sustainable footing are politically sensitive. But... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the UK turning Japanese? The UK economy is at risk of following a path that is, if anything, worse than the ‘lost decades’ Japan experienced from the early 1990s. While the UK possesses some advantages Japan lacked, in some... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
