Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug 13.) The smaller peripheral euro-zone economies continue to make solid inroads into their budget deficits. But the Italian and Spanish deficits have fallen only modestly. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany to fund more than a third Greek bail-out? German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble’s acknowledgement last week that Greece needs more aid seemed like a statement of the obvious. Encouragingly, however the size of any new bail-out will be... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s debt dynamics still look ugly Despite the recent upward revision to our forecast for Italian GDP growth, we still think that the Government’s budget deficit and debt forecasts are too sanguine. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jul 13.) Despite signs of life in the economy, July’s public finances data suggest that these are being slow to support the fiscal figures. Admittedly, the impact of the economic recovery on the public purse... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Return to growth won’t eliminate euro-zone default risks The recent return of economic growth in the euro-zone does not eradicate the risk that some of the peripheral economies will undertake some form of sovereign default. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Threat from twin deficits begins to recede The incoming news over the past couple of weeks suggests that the so-called twin deficits – the current account and Federal budget – are both improving, in the case of the Federal budget quite... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Options for the consumption tax Japan’s government could still decide to delay the consumption tax hike scheduled for April 2014. The damage to credibility may be lessened if the economy is clearly too weak and a sensible... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Case for corporate tax cuts appears irresistible Even without the need to mitigate the impact of the planned doubling of the consumption tax, the arguments for lowering Japan’s relatively high corporate tax rates would be very strong. But with a... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What do the Q2 GDP data mean for the consumption tax? Last week India appointed Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist at the IMF, as the new governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI). The new governor takes over at a tricky time, with India’s economy... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal populism setting Argentina up for a fall Argentina’s public finances have deteriorated by more than meets the eye under Cristina Fernández. Increased monetisation and the transfer of resources from public institutions have prevented the... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia to keep policy loose as mining boom cools The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate by 25bp to 2.5% at its meeting today. It is likely to keep rates very low over the next two years to support the economy through a mining slowdown... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tampering with the sales tax hike carries risks China’s economy is set to slow further over coming years but we believe that the slump in growth many are now predicting will be avoided. 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) The latest figures on the public finances show that Italy and Portugal are struggling to reduce their budget deficits, but Ireland, Greece and Spain are faring rather better. 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A welcome light on China’s government debt China’s forthcoming audit of government debt will shine a welcome light on a murky part of the economy. Based on what we know at present, the overall government debt situation has actually improved in... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Public debt levels unlikely to rise sharply The twin tailwinds of debt relief programmes from Western governments and high commodity prices have helped to dramatically reduce public debt levels in sub-Saharan Africa over the past few years. But... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity not over yet Over the past twelve months or so, policy-makers have sounded more pragmatic about the need for further fiscal austerity. However, the reduction in the structural budget deficit in advanced economies... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
