Asia Economics Focus Credit slowdown set to weigh on Thailand’s growth Thailand’s economic growth since the global financial crisis has been supported by an unsustainable surge in credit. Cooling this credit boom is essential to avoid a future crisis but, as this happens... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: twin deficits to keep monetary policy tight A failure to sufficiently rein in large budget and current account deficits means that further monetary tightening is still likely in Ghana, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rise in capital spending takes edge off deficit concerns An increase in capital expenditure across the region over the past few years means that the general widening in budget deficits may not be as worrying as the headline figures suggest. But there are... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fed tapering unlikely to put region’s external positions at risk The turbulence in financial markets over the past few months has raised concerns about how emerging markets will perform as global monetary conditions tighten. In the case of Africa, current account... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumption tax strategy leaves credibility in doubt The Japanese government looks set to press ahead with the hike in the consumption tax as planned next year, albeit with some offsetting increases in public spending and cuts in corporate taxes. This... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How important is the Shanghai Free Trade Zone? The free trade zone about to be set up in Shanghai is intended as a testing ground for new policies, with a focus on liberalising the service sector, and financial services in particular. Successful... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy won’t fuel the euro-zone recovery Hopes that looser or less tight fiscal policy will fuel the recovery in the euro-zone economy are unlikely to be met. For the foreseeable future, fiscal policy will remain a sizeable drag on growth. 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Will Egypt monetise its budget deficit? There are mounting concerns about the prospect of deficit monetisation in Egypt. Indeed, thereappears to be some evidence that the central bank is already financing the budget shortfall, albeiton a... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Two cheers for fiscal reform in Mexico The package of tax reforms announced over the weekend by the Mexican government is the most significant in recent history, but will still leave the authorities highly reliant on oil as a source of... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Consumption tax – not Olympics – key to Nikkei outlook The headlines in Japan today have been dominated by the successful Olympics bid, but there will be many decisions with much greater economic and market significance to be taken before 2020 – not least... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Subsidy reform key to sustaining fiscal discipline The widening of fiscal deficits in several economies in sub-Saharan Africa over the past few years has increased the importance of subsidy reform. The good news is that policymakers are starting to... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Morocco and Tunisia to remain sluggish Signs of recovery in the euro-zone are encouraging for Morocco and Tunisia. But political problems and large twin fiscal and current account deficits will continue to cloud the economic outlook. 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan reiterates support for consumption tax hikes Governor Kuroda today underlined the Bank of Japan’s view – already reflected in its economic forecasts – that the planned consumption tax hikes will neither derail the recovery nor prevent inflation... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumers leading moderate recovery The euro-zone exited its record-long recession in Q2 and recent business surveys suggest that the economy should expand again in the third quarter. An increase in household spending, the first in... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia likely to cut rates before the end of the year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold today, as expected. However, we still expect further loosening before the end of the year, and think that rates will remain very low in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Happy Birthday OMTs – it could be downhill from here The ECB’s OMT programme has had a successful first year. But there are still reasons to doubt that it has solved the euro-zone crisis and the programme’s effects could fade in the coming months. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
