Africa Economics Update Fiscal tightening to weigh on near-term growth in Zambia The fiscal tightening entailed in Zambia's budget for 2014 means that economic growth is likely to slow over the next year or so. Nonetheless, despite the overall cut in expenditure, public investment... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Short-term debt ceiling fix still leaves plenty of uncertainty Financial markets have been buoyed by media reports indicating that both the Senate and the House are preparing to vote imminently on a bill to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senate edging closer to deal to reopen government The Senate appears to be edging closer to a deal to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling. There is a risk that the Republican-controlled House will initially reject that agreement... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget keeps Ireland on track for bail-out exit Ireland’s 2014 Budget presented an apparently conducive backdrop for the country’s exit from its euro-zone support programme later this year. But Ireland’s post bail-out prosperity is not yet assured... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Delving into the Treasury’s spending schedule Despite the more promising tone of the recent discussions on Capitol Hill, there remains a risk that the debt ceiling will not be raised before Thursday. But a detailed look at the Treasury’s spending... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to expect from the autumn Diet session The autumn Diet session is the first in which Prime Minister Abe’s coalition has a majority in both houses of the legislature and it will provide an important test of his ability to push through... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Does Europe still face default? Despite the euro-zone economy’s recent recovery, likely constraints on future rates of economic growth and limits to further austerity mean that more of the region’s economies could yet choose, or be... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Crunch time It’s good news that Congress appears to be moving towards a deal to raise the debt ceiling, but the solution currently being discussed is far from perfect. The biggest problem is that the Republican... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: debt ceiling alone won’t solve fiscal problems The IMF is right to argue that fiscal policy in South Africa needs to be tightened over the coming years in order to put public debt on a stable path. But its recommendation that South Africa adopt a... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal tightening still not over, but the worst may have passed Clearly, the fiscal issues dominating the news at present are the US government shutdown and threat of default. We discuss the recent trends in the US and other advanced economies on pages 3- 4. But... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s slowdown starting to hit public finances The slump in Russia’s economy over the past year is starting to weigh on its public finances. The deterioration has so far been fairly modest and the fiscal position looks manageable for now. But the... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects improve, but crisis unresolved The European economy has shown further signs of recovery, with the euro-zone finally emerging from recession in the second quarter and other parts of the continent also faring better. But growth in... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China and India holding back regional rebound GDP growth in Emerging Asia over the next couple of years is likely to remain lacklustre by recent historical standards. The main reason for the subdued outlook is poor growth prospects in the region... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery, but the right sort? The recent concerns about the type of economic recovery underway in the UK are overdone. While the recovery still faces some major challenges, we do not believe that an over-reliance on the housing... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown could continue until debt ceiling deadline Congress appears to be no closer to resolving the now week-old government shutdown. Our best guess is that a comprehensive agreement will be reached sometime close to the 17th October debt ceiling... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Deficit target unlikely to be reached The decision to go ahead with the first consumption tax hike next year is an important step towards improving Japan’s public finances. But the government will have to go further to have a chance of... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
