Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon's fiscal position could go from bad to worse Recent reports that Lebanon could have a new cabinet in a matter of weeks (having not had one for nine months) have raised hopes that the deteriorating public finances may finally be brought under... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China to slow, but faster growth elsewhere Most of Emerging Asia should enjoy a steady recovery in 2014-15 on the back of loose monetary policy and an expected recovery in the developed world. China is the main exception. Recently announced... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The leader of the pack? The UK economy has leapt towards the top of the international growth table and there are good reasons to think it can stay there. We now expect the economy to grow by 3% this year and next. 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures still building Recent euro-zone inflation data have provided firmer signs that CPI inflation will remain well below the ECB’s 2% stability ceiling for longer than the Bank itself expects. Admittedly, headline CPI... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling unemployment unlikely to prompt rate hike While unemployment is falling swiftly towards the 7% threshold above which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has pledged to keep official interest rates on hold, it remains unlikely that rates will... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Public spending set to provide less support to Saudi economy This year’s Saudi government budget envisages the slowest rise in public spending in over a decade. This is welcome from the viewpoint of longer-term fiscal sustainability, but it does mean that... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Brazil’s worsening fiscal position There are two aspects of the recent deterioration in Brazil's fiscal position that are especially worrying. First, it has occurred despite the fact that the economy is operating at full employment... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec 13.) The latest headline fiscal figures show that Italy and Spain, the periphery's two largest economies, may have struggled to make inroads into their budget deficits in 2013. 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Thailand ends the year in crisis Thailand heads into 2014 in political crisis. Anti-government protests that began in November have pushed the prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, into dissolving parliament and calling new elections... 24th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nat. Acc., Bal. of Pay. (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) While the national accounts showed that the economic recovery has been stronger than previously thought this year, they also provided a few reasons to doubt that it will be able to maintain its recent... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal austerity to continue but will be less severe next year Austerity will be a drag on growth in advanced economies next year, but the squeeze should be smaller than this year. Moreover, the risks of further fiscal tightening have fallen since US politicians... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Local government debt key challenge for 2014 China's government has sounded a sanguine note about GDP growth at the close of its Economic Work Conference. Monetary policy will remain "prudent" and fiscal policy "proactive" in 2014. In practice... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much more help will Greece need? The situation in Greece has improved dramatically over the past year. But while the second bail-out has ensured that the public finances are in a better position than they were, Greece’s public debt... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget deal would deliver much-needed fiscal stability The modest bipartisan budget deal announced late yesterday, which would boost Federal spending by roughly $63bn over the next two years while at the same time reducing deficits by a cumulative $23bn... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Near-term policy catalysts few and far between The details of the fiscal stimulus package unveiled on Thursday were disappointing. The corporate tax surcharge will be phased out a year earlier than scheduled, but there was no mention of a cut in... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economic activity picks up further Judging by the latest business surveys, activity in advanced economies has strengthened further. The global manufacturing PMI is now consistent on past form with world GDP growth of as much as 4%... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
