Africa Economics Update Zambia’s fiscal position a major concern Zambia’s fiscal position has deteriorated markedly over the past few years despite the tailwind of high copper prices, which have boosted revenues. A relatively low burden of public debt means that a... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government will need every bit of extra fiscal room It seems almost certain now that the Federal government will meet its timetable for eliminating the budget deficit before fiscal year 2015-16, which will give it the wiggle room it needed to deliver... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s fiscal position still a major concern At first glance, the interim Egyptian government seems to have made some progress in bringing the country’s dire public finances back under control. However, the apparent improvement can largely be... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policy help or hinder the recovery? Provided that low inflation allows monetary policy to remain very loose for some time yet and a further sharp rise in the pound can be avoided, policy should not be major hindrance to the economic... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Brighter signs don't preclude need for more policy action Despite the recent bout of disappointing global economic news and financial market turbulence, economic indicators like the PMI suggest that the euro-zone’s fragile recovery gained a bit of a momentum... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook for 2014 still bright The economic recovery appears to have remained strong at the start of 2014. Although the composite CIPS/Markit activity index weakened again in January, it still points on the basis of past form to... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Surplus ambitions raise some problematic issues The main political parties have recently been fighting amongst themselves for the mantle of fiscal responsibility. But ambitions on both sides for a budget surplus exaggerate the influence politicians... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that, last year, the smaller peripheral economies made significantly better fiscal progress than Italy or Spain. 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity easing, but unevenly The worst period of global fiscal austerity is finally passing and this should give a boost to growth in advanced economies, at least relative to 2013. But the benefits will vary between countries... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Data, MPC Mins (Jan.) & Pub. Fin. (Dec.) Today’s figures show that conditions are continuing to improve rapidly in the labour market. But the further fall in the unemployment rate is unlikely to trigger an imminent interest rate hike by the... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of Egypt's new constitution The approval of Egypt’s new constitution marks a key political milestone, paving the way for fresh elections to take place in the coming months. However, these could lead to a renewed flare-up in... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India: Fiscal drag in first quarter as government checks deficit Fiscal policy is likely to impose a drag on India’s growth this quarter. Weak revenue growth and the government’s firm commitment to reduce this year’s fiscal deficit have left it with little choice... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook A brighter outlook We expect global growth to pick up gradually during the coming two years as private sector spending accelerates and fiscal austerity eases. Among advanced economies, the US will lead the recovery... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France gets to grips with its structural problems, slowly The new “responsibility pact” is a step forward for the French economy. Taken together with other planned measures, France is now slowly tackling some of its structural problems. 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about rising levels of external debt? Most analysis of EM vulnerabilities to Fed tapering and the likelihood of tougher external financing conditions over the coming years has focussed on the size of a country’s current account deficit... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers cast shadow over recovery The European economy looks set for another year of weak growth in 2014, with the euro-zone likely to do little more than stagnate. Against that background, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
