Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Creaking current account points to default One year after the death of Hugo Chavez, the former Venezuelan President’s legacy of fiscal largesse and rampant inflation has left the economy on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. With... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: fiscal policy set to provide less support to growth The rapid rise in Omani government spending in recent years has caused the budget surplus to narrow sharply and, if we’re right in expecting oil prices to fall over the coming years, the budget... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Still on course for steady recovery A combination of severe winter weather in the US, New Year celebrations in China and a planned tax hike in Japan are making it more difficult than usual to assess the strength of the world economy... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay squeeze continuing to ease The squeeze on real earnings is continuing to ease, increasing the chances that 2014 is the first year that real pay rises since the financial crisis. Granted, the headline (three month average of the... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update State & local government spending will soon rebound We’re not very concerned by the recent decline in State and local government spending when States’ own spending plans are consistent with a decent rebound both this year and next. This will compliment... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The calm before the storm Recent economic data have mostly been positive, with industrial production and retail sales climbing to multi-year highs, and corporate profitability exceptionally strong. However, investors are... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Does Portugal need more help? The chances of Portugal following in Ireland’s footsteps and making a “clean break” from its bailout have recently grown. Nonetheless, we think that it may still need further loans and some form of... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch at the National People’s Congress The National People’s Congress meeting that starts in Beijing this week will give us a chance to review progress on economic reform since the Third Plenum and to gauge where the leadership’s immediate... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African bond market unconvinced by budget South Africa’s Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan announced new projections for smaller fiscal deficits over the coming years in today’s budget statement, but we think that these are unlikely to be met... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb 14.) The smaller euro-zone peripheral economies made good fiscal progress last year, but the adjustment process is by no means over yet. Italy and Spain fared less well. As a result, this year, they may... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong set for gradual recovery Hong Kong’s economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the last quarter of 2013, thanks mainly to a continued recovery in exports. Looking ahead, with the territory’s prospects largely dependent on... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20: “Abenomics” goes global? The G20’s bold plan to boost their collective GDP by more than 2% over the next five years contains many of the elements of the policies, collectively known as “Abenomics”, adopted by PM Abe’s... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican growth close to bottoming out The slowdown in Mexican GDP growth to 0.7% y/y in Q4 means that the economy grew by just 1.1% in 2013 – its weakest performance since 2009, and its second weakest performance since 2002. Nonetheless... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore budget looks to the long term Today’s budget for the coming fiscal year targets a small surplus, which comes as no surprise given the reasonably upbeat short-term outlook for the economy and lingering concerns over inflation. But... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Jan.) The sharp monthly drop in retail sales volumes in January is unlikely to herald the start of a consumer spending slowdown. Meanwhile, the fiscal consolidation remains on track despite January’s... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fiscal drag to add to growth concerns Next month’s budget is likely to be neutral for growth. But on a broader definition that accounts for off-budget activity, the fiscal stance this year will probably be a major drag on the economy. 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
