UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery robust but housing market concerns build The last month’s data has provided further evidence that the UK economy is enjoying a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of solid, but not excessive, growth and low inflation. The latest PMI surveys suggest that... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Have the ECB's contingencies been met? The latest economic data have left the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action – a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of the money markets –... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update El Niño-related food inflation worries in India premature India's high dependence on rainfall for crop production makes it particularly vulnerable to the dry El Niño weather conditions that many weather forecasters expect this year. Concerns over the... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack It's all about the consumption tax For now, Japan's economy is following the script of the 1997 consumption tax hike. Consumer spending surged in a last-minute shopping spree before the tax was raised, and inflation soared in the... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus unlikely to achieve a 'clean exit' The improvement in investor sentiment towards the euro-zone has allowed even beleaguered Cyprus to tap the markets for funding. But the nation remains a long way from replicating Ireland’s ‘clean exit... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) Although progress is still slow, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided more evidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The unhelpful divergence between France and Germany Data released last week suggested that the euro-zone recovery gained more traction at the start of Q2. But there remains a worrying divergence between France and Germany which risks holding back the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Apr.) & Public Finances (Mar.) The minutes of April’s MPC meeting suggested that the first rise in official interest rates remains some way off. Meanwhile, March’s public finances brought some fairly positive news on the speed of... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal drag easing faster than expected The fiscal drag in advanced economies is fading more rapidly than previously anticipated. This should provide some support for the global recovery both this year and next. However, the longer-term... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook West to outperform East The world economy should expand steadily in the coming two years, helped by an increasingly strong recovery in the US. However, while the euro-zone has stabilised, it is not growing fast enough to... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek debt issue doesn't end the broader crisis Greece’s return to the bond markets last week might appear to mark the end of the euro-zone crisis which began when the true extent of the same country’s fiscal problems came to light in 2010. But... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece's return to the market may not be all positive Greece’s successful bond issue highlights the progress that the country has made in recent years. But an increased use of market funding creates its own risks for Greece’s recovery. 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity easing faster than expected The fiscal drag in advanced economies is fading more rapidly than previously forecast, which should provide some support for the global recovery in the coming year or two. But the longer-term outlook... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can Mr Osborne declare victory? While the UK economy may have withstood the fiscal consolidation rather better than the IMF and other critics anticipated, there are reasons why George Osborne may want to think twice before declaring... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers persist The recovery in the European economy appears to have picked up a bit of speed in the early months of 2014. The euro-zone now looks set to expand by 1% or more this year, a significant improvement on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling inflation enhances recovery prospects The last month has brought more good news on inflation. CPI inflation eased from 1.9% to 1.7% in February, the lowest rate since October 2009. Meanwhile, past falls in commodity and import prices... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
