Japan Economics Focus How big are the risks from a deteriorating current account? Japan’s current account surplus has fallen sharply in recent years, as the trade balance has moved deeply into the red. The current account balance is more likely to rebound into surplus than slip... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus France to fall further behind Germany The recent underperformance of the French economy compared to Germany reflects fundamentalfactors that will drive an even greater wedge between the two economies over time. Thisdivergence will... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower interest rates won't prevent slowdown Canada's economy will struggle over the next two years due to a housing-induced slowdown that potentially could push the economy close to stagnation before the end of 2016. While export and investment... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting back to normal Global growth is likely to accelerate a bit during the coming two years while inflation and interest rates should generally remain very low. The US and UK are set for a period of fairly rapid growth... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are weak tax receipts a sign the recovery is flagging? The public finances, particularly tax receipts, have made a disappointing start to this fiscal year. However, recent fiscal data have been distorted by several temporary factors, suggesting that they... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's budget hawkish, but lacking detail on reforms India’s new government took a more hawkish line than expected in its budget today, committing to a further sizeable reduction in the budget deficit that will weigh on growth. Some will be disappointed... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets? While the European economic recovery probably picked up a bit of speed in the second quarter of the year, there are growing signs that Q2 was as good as it is likely to get. Activity indicators in the... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s subsidy cuts a good first step but still more to be done The package of energy subsidy cuts unveiled by the Egyptian government over the weekend is a positive first step towards tackling the country’s gaping budget deficit. Further reforms will be needed to... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weaker credit growth to weigh on region Most countries in Emerging Asia should record reasonable growth over the next couple of years, helped by a combination of supportive monetary policy and a pick-up in demand from advanced economies... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Pay growth likely to spring back soon While the economic recovery appears to have accelerated in Q2, workers are still failing to see the benefits in their pay packets. Annual growth in average weekly earnings fell from 2.2% to -1.7% in... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy proving resilient to tax hike The latest data suggest that the tax hike has not had a lasting impact on Japan’s economy. Business surveys have mostly rebounded, spending has too, and manufacturing output has stabilised. What’s... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) Although progress is still slow, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided more evidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the recovery sustainable? Provided that interest rates rise only gradually over the years ahead, the UK economy looks set for a prolonged period of strong growth which mends rather than exacerbates its existing imbalances. 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Italy really stop its debt rising? Contrary to official forecasts, Italy’s huge public debt is unlikely to fall over the coming years. Given the size of the economy, this will leave not only Italy in a very precarious position, but... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update FX reserves are no magic bullet in a debt crisis The foreign exchange reserves of the People’s Bank would be of little use in the event of a debt or banking crisis in China. The bulk of the costs of any clean-up would ultimately still be paid by the... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Third arrow unlikely to boost potential growth significantly While the revised “Growth Strategy” appears to contain some promising elements, it is unlikely to lift Japan’s potential growth rate significantly. In particular, the document does not adequately... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
