Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs under little threat from lower oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has led some to call into question the sustainability of the Gulf’s dollar pegs. However, we think the risk of currency devaluation is relatively small. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A limp recovery The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the recovery slow when the fiscal squeeze resumes? The recovery’s acceleration just as the pace of fiscal consolidation eased last year could suggest that GDP growth will slow sharply when the fiscal squeeze re-intensifies after the general election... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government better positioned to provide stimulus Amidst challenging economic times, the Conservative-led government has fulfilled its pledge to eliminate the Federal budget deficit and is now focused on fortifying its majority government in next... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Growing pile of foreign cash won’t help the domestic economy The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa gets serious about fiscal consolidation South Africa’s Medium Term Budget (MTB), announced last month, received a mixed reception. Government bond yields fell slightly on the day it was announced. But last week, Moody’s downgraded South... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf entering an era of softer growth as oil boom fades The sharp slide in oil prices since the summer won’t cause a major headache for the Gulf States, but it does reinforce the point that these economies are set to lose some steam over the coming years... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Significant slowdown still looks unlikely Fears that the UK’s economic recovery is rapidly losing steam appear largely overblown. Admittedly, the Markit/CIPS Composite PMI, which weights together the headline indices for the manufacturing... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Coordinated policy moves raise likelihood of sales tax hike The Bank of Japan’s decision on Friday to step up its pace of asset purchases has raised the chance that the sales tax will be increased again next year, but the decision is not yet a foregone... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in September but France and Italy submitted draft budgets that flouted EU fiscal rules. 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Minimal impact from the end of QE3 Asia's financial markets have so far taken the end of QE3 largely in their stride. The performance of the region's currencies and equity markets has been fairly muted over the past month, while... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank tries to claw back lost credibility The surprise decision by Brazil’s central bank to raise interest rates now, rather than waiting for Dilma Rousseff’s new government to take shape, is an early sign that tackling inflation could be... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower oil price adds to risks Alongside the potential for a sharp correction in the domestic housing market, the recent slump in crude oil prices represents a second risk to the Canadian economic outlook. We expect GDP growth to... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) October’s fall in Ifo business sentiment was a blow to hopes that the German recovery should resume at the end of the year and will add to pressure on the Government there to consider a fiscal boost. 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much damage would a delay in the tax hike do? Recent comments by PM Abe suggest that next year’s scheduled hike in the sales tax might be delayed. Concerns about the economic impact of a further tax hike are understandable given the weakness of... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
