Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2015 budget suggests authorities calm about oil price fall Saudi Arabia’s 2015 budget statement doesn’t provide a clear steer about the path for actual government spending. Reading between the lines, it looks like the authorities will keep spending restrained... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 2015: Another year of strength? Last week’s data releases provided more encouragement that the economic recovery has a fair amount of momentum at the end of 2014. Indeed, barring any last-minute shocks, the UK economy appears to... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2014 Our macro forecasts for this year turned out to be broadly correct, with GDP growth accelerating,the unemployment rate falling further and the Fed winding down its asset purchase programme.Our big... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) While the latest public finance figures showed that the trend in borrowing has finally begun to improve, the pace at which the deficit is falling remains disappointingly slow given the strength of the... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rate surge puts PBOC in a bind Interbank interest rates this week recorded their biggest increase in several months. The rate increase is much smaller than at this time last year but a key difference is that the People’s Bank cut... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reasons for optimism as 2014 ends On the face of it, 2014 has been another disappointing year for the Indianeconomy. Growth over the first three quarters averaged just 5.2% y/y, only asmall improvement from the trough of 2012-2013 and... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack An unambiguous strengthening in activity The incoming news on activity has been unambiguously strong and, when taken together with the boost from the further fall in oil prices, has made us more confident that GDP will grow by at least 3%... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lessons from 1998 There are more differences than similarities between the current crisis in Russia and the crisis in 1998, but one point in common is that both have their roots in severe strains in the country’s... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Downside risks multiplying Even with the US economic recovery moving into a higher gear, the outlook for Canada's economy is, at best, mediocre. Furthermore, there is now a significant risk that a perfect storm of a collapse in... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Naira and rand in the firing line Currencies in sub-Saharan Africa have continued to come under pressure this month, with both the South African rand and Nigerian naira falling to record lows. The naira has suffered from the further... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets right to be worried about Syriza? The prospect of gaining power has prompted Greece’s anti-bailout party Syriza to soften its stance on some issues. But markets are still right to be worried, given uncertainty around its plans for... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fed can't delay for much longer The outlook for real economic growth was already looking up even before the recent collapse in energy prices. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate from 2.3% this year to 3.0% in 2015, before... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key questions for EMs in 2015 The slump in oil prices and renewed falls in EM currencies over the past month have rekindled fears over the outlook for emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising interest bill may prevent easing of austerity plans The colossal downward revision to the OBR’s forecast for interest payments in the Autumn Statement highlighted that the amount of austerity needed to attain a budget surplus is very sensitive to... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow to its weakest pace since the late 1990s next year. There are several drivers of this weakness, but a common theme is that the global commodities boom... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies take plunge in oil prices in their stride The slump in oil prices has caused the Gulf’s equity markets to tumble, but the region’s governments still seem to be unfazed. Oman aside, no country has announced cuts in public spending. And Saudi... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
