Africa Economics Update Decline in oil prices not a disaster for Nigeria’s public finances The dramatic fall in oil prices since last summer will take a significant chunk out of the Nigerian government’s tax receipts, but we do not think it will be disastrous. Although measures to boost non... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dilma’s second term agenda takes shape The key elements of Brazil’s President Rousseff’s policy agenda for her second term in office have started to emerge over the past month. The central theme is a return to “orthodoxy”, with fiscal and... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Ghana GDP (Q3) & Kenya Interest Rate Ghana’s GDP growth picked up in Q3, to 5.1% y/y, following a sharp slowdown in Q2. But given the declines in commodity prices, and tight monetary and fiscal policy, we think that the economy will grow... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy ended last year on a weaker note Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Saudi economy eased towards the end of last year, but there aren’t any signs that the plunge in oil prices has caused activity to collapse. Looking ahead... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit North Africa We’ve written extensively in recent months about the losses the Gulf economies face in light of the plunge in oil prices. But in this Watch we explain why the North African economies of Egypt, Morocco... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How might debt restructuring by Greece affect the IMF? Whether or not Syriza forms its next government, Greece is unlikely to default on its bail-out loans from the IMF. However, if it does so, the political fallout for the IMF itself would be serious. 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation will last longer this time The euro-zone is back in deflation just over five years since the end of the last period of falling prices seen in 2009. But unlike that last bout, which lasted just five months, deflation looks set... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shining a light on “stealth” stimulus Markets have latched onto two low-key policy developments at the start of 2015 as evidence that policymakers are pursuing both monetary and fiscal stimulus by stealth. We don’t think either amounts to... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in November, but fiscal consolidation is doing little to tackle debt ratios in some countries and they may only get worse if the euro-zone... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices leaves Ecuador facing sharp slowdown Ecuador’s economy faces a slump this year as the sharp fall in oil prices threatens to open up large twin current account and budget deficits. As a result, we are revising down our forecast and now... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Cause for optimism in 2015 In our first Watch of 2015, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. Falling commodity prices should brighten the outlook by providing a boost to consumer spending and... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update GST will add to headwinds, but won't derail Malaysia's economy The introduction of a Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April marks an important step towards strengthening Malaysia's public finances over the medium term. And while it will put upward pressure on... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal policy still becoming tighter despite rising spending The recently-announced supplementary budget is small by past standards and does not significantlyalter the economic outlook. While the budget for the coming fiscal year foresees a fresh record high... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Oil price decline to bolster recovery in 2015 The halving of oil prices over the past six months should provide some timely support to the economic recovery. Indeed, coupled with the freezing of energy bills this winter, lower oil prices should... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three political risks to watch out for in 2015 2014 was the year that political risk returned to Emerging Europe and the political and economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to reverberate this year too. But we think there are... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
