Africa Economic Outlook A difficult year ahead A confluence of domestic and external factors will cut Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth in 2015 to its slowest rate this century. Low commodity prices will reduce export earnings and force fiscal... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour market (Jan./Feb.) The latest labour market figures were a bit disappointing, but there was enough good news for the Chancellor to trumpet in his Budget later today. Meanwhile, the latest MPC minutes echoed Governor... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Budget Checklist 2015 This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Budget at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. For a more detailed look at our... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) The sharp fall in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q4, from 5.8% to 5.1% of GDP, was driven almost entirely by a fall in imports, which reflects lower energy costs. Nonetheless, given the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France will struggle to meet its new fiscal targets, again While France has been given an extra two years to meet its new budget targets set by Brussels, we think that it will still struggle to achieve the necessary fiscal consolidation given France’s... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pension reforms: Ford Fiestas, not Lamborghinis The pension reforms that come into effect next month create the potential for tens of billions of pounds to be transferred out of pension funds and into the wider economy. The actual amount that will... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the pound riding for a fall? Sterling remains vulnerable to concerns about a hung parliament, EU exit and the current account deficit. But it is hard to tell when these concerns will bite, if they will at all. And in the meantime... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015 Preview When the coalition came to power, it envisaged eradicating the black hole in the public finances within five years, paving the way for big handouts by the time of this election. With the job only half... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s debt restructuring: five key questions It looks all but inevitable that Ukraine will need to restructure its public debts, but there’s a huge amount of uncertainty about what the restructuring might look like. To shed some light, in this... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why are the public finances not already fixed? If the fiscal squeeze had gone to plan, no more austerity would now be needed. The assumption that the recovery would be strong and tax-friendly was misplaced. The next government should be dealt a... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Bumps in the road but no fiscal cliff Yesterday's budget left us none the wiser about how policymakers plan to manage the abrupt halt in off-budget financing that new rules are imposing on local governments this year. There could be some... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Venezuela in crisis, but EM risks generally low Our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI) reports that the overall level of emerging market (EM) risk remains at a decade low, but that concerns remain about a handful of countries. Venezuela... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf public investment projects to take the hit from low oil prices The Gulf countries should be able to stomach low prices for the next few years at least, but further down the line some form of adjustment is likely to be needed and we think that fiscal policy will... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures remain intense Although headline consumer price inflation rose from -0.6% to -0.3% in February, this was driven entirely by a rise in energy prices as oil prices reversed some of their recent falls. Core inflation... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) After consolidating their fiscal positions in 2014, the peripheral economies had a mixed start to 2015. Ireland and Italy both fared comparatively well but Portugal and Greece struggled. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to cope with commodity collapse The plunge in the prices of the key commodity exports of both Australia and New Zealand late last year will soon filter through into weaker domestic activity, resulting in GDP growth this year slowing... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
