Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery stalls as Brazil suffers renewed downturn The recovery that appeared to be underway in Latin America at the end of last year has faded in recent months, with several of the region’s economies experiencing renewed downturns. The latest... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Response – Economy hung out to dry The 2015-16 Budget will quash any talk of a credit rating downgrade, but won’t give the economy a much-needed helping hand. The decision by Treasurer Joe Hockey not reduce the coming fiscal squeeze... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese tourists to keep current account surplus in check China’s goods trade surplus last year was a third higher in dollar terms than at the previous peak in 2008. Yet the country’s current account surplus – the broadest measure of its economic imbalance... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Austerity and low inflation likely to keep MPC inactive Since the first estimate of Q1 GDP has cast some doubt over the recovery’s health, the MPC is likely to have voted unanimously again at this month’s meeting to keep interest rates on hold. And while... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tory majority brings more clarity to fiscal outlook The Tories’ outright majority indicates that the economy is clearly heading for a major re-intensification of the fiscal squeeze next year. This will represent only the first step towards their... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has the general election changed the consumer outlook? With the Conservatives achieving an overall majority in the general election, we now know that consumers are set to face another five years of harsh austerity. But on the whole, households look better... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update UK election eases political uncertainty, but sterling risks remain Financial markets have initially welcomed the clarity and continuity resulting from the Conservative Party’s unexpectedly decisive victory in the UK general election. Political risks have undoubtedly... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Tory win removes risk of prolonged political uncertainty With the Conservatives on course to achieve an overall majority, the UK general election result is a surprisingly market-friendly outcome and removes the risk that the economy suffers a prolonged... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New Finnish coalition’s austerity to drag on growth The new coalition government is likely to impose significant budget cuts that would drag on Finland’s already ailing economy. But there are reasons to think that fiscal consolidation might be less of... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil heads deeper into the fiscal mire It is, in truth, too soon to expect any improvement in Brazil’s public finances as a result of the belt-tightening measures introduced over the past few months, but the fact that the fiscal position... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could a debt default revive the Greek economy? While euro-zone officials appear increasingly resigned to some form of Greek sovereign debt default, we doubt that this alone would revive the economy and secure the country’s membership of the euro. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Preview: Disappointing as well as “dull” While Tuesday’s Federal Budget may well live up to the “dull” label slapped on it by the Prime Minister, the failure to provide any extra support to the economy will be disappointing. This would place... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Structural budget balances don’t tell the whole story In theory the structural budget balance, which takes account of whether an economy is running above or below its potential level, provides a useful summary of a government’s fiscal position. On this... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Post-election negotiations unlikely to redraw fiscal outlook Our Election Preview, published 30th April, contains our detailed analysis on the election. Here we answer questions clients may have about the possible series of events over the coming days and weeks... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria 2015 budget: looking behind the numbers Falling oil revenue will cause Nigeria’s fiscal deficit to widen in 2015, but we do not expect the shortfall to exceed 2% of GDP. Despite talk of tightening fiscal policy, federal government spending... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) The latest euro-zone fiscal data showed that only Italy and Ireland made any improvement in their budgetary positions in Q1. And the latest data from Greece are far from encouraging. 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
