UK Economics Update Have the Conservatives turned into Labour? The Autumn Statement took the Conservatives’ planned path for departmental spending another stepcloser to Labour’s manifesto plans. Admittedly, the overall fiscal consolidation this parliament is set... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI's faith in finance ministry is misplaced The RBI is expressing a high degree of faith in the finance ministry’s ability to offset a rising public sector wage bill by boosting tax revenues or trimming other forms of current spending. We fear... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela elections: turning point or tipping point? Venezuela’s opposition looks set to triumph in legislative elections on Sunday but, unlike last month’s election upset in Argentina, this won’t trigger a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. If... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fiscal deposit auctions could provide stimulus shot A report today suggesting that all local governments may soon be allowed to auction off their fiscal deposits deserves more attention than it has received. Such a move would have important... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: The economic consequences of impeachment As we anticipated, Brazilian markets have so far shrugged off last night’s news that impeachment proceedings will be launched against President Rousseff . As the dust settles, the biggest consequence... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect from Saudi Arabia’s upcoming budget Saudi Arabia’s upcoming budget statement will be scrutinised even more than usual and we suspect (and hope) that it will provide more realistic forecasts as well as a clear agenda for fiscal... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher debt interest payments could scupper Osborne’s plans Although the Chancellor is probably still running high from last week’s surprise windfall from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) at the Autumn Statement, he should be wary. There are various... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) The latest fiscal data provided further evidence that the peripheral countries are improving their budgetary positions. But with some of these countries planning to loosen the fiscal reins next year... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Current Account & Government Finances (Q3) The latest data on net exports and government spending/investment suggest that GDP growth in the third quarter was a little bit stronger than we thought at around 0.9% q/q. This supports the... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina: Macri’s economic team takes shape The election of Mauricio Macri , the reformist candidate in Argentina’s presidential election, has transformed the country’s economic outlook. The result was largely anticipated – markets had jumped... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Russia’s sanctions on Turkey The economic impact of the Russian sanctions on Turkey announced this weekend will, in general, probably be limited. Our best estimate of the maximum losses to the Turkish economy is around 0.5% of... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update China-Africa: What to expect from this year’s FOCAC This Friday South Africa will host the sixth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), a triannual summit jointly convened by China and the Africa Union. The forum will be Africa’s highest-profile... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fiscal drag now turning to fiscal boost The debate about China’s economic outlook hinges on what caused growth to slow early in 2015. One of the main culprits, in our view, was fiscal policy, which tightened significantly in late-2014 and... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Definitely not the end of austerity The Chancellor’s surprise windfall from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) allowed him to do everything he wanted in last week’s Spending Review and Autumn Statement – and more. Indeed, it is... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement adds to mounting pressure on retailers The measures announced in the Autumn Statement should provide a small boost to consumers’ incomes next year relative to the July Budget. But at just 0.2% of nominal income, it is unlikely to be... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2015: OBR digs Osborne out of a hole This was a much more benign Autumn Statement than most had anticipated. Nonetheless, the big picture is still that austerity will renew in earnest next year – although we think that the economic... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
