Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel subsidy issue still unresolved Reports of the end of Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy scheme are greatly exaggerated. We expect that fuel distributors will require another costly bailout in 2016, which will add to Nigeria’s wide... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China holds the key to regional recovery Turmoil in China’s financial markets has fuelled concerns that its real economy is also on the brink of a crisis, but we expect continued policy support to drive a recovery over the coming months... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia aside, oil drop will benefit Emerging Europe The renewed slide in oil prices has been an important factor behind the latest deterioration in sentiment towards EMs over recent weeks. However, with the obvious exception of Russia, most countries... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What is the best way to reduce public sector debt? The easiest way to cut the government debt ratio would be to let economic growth do the work. Yet this could take decades. Cutting it faster would mean running smaller deficits at first, then... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Oil price fall further dims Malaysia’s 2016 growth outlook The renewed fall in oil prices in recent months is a further blow to Malaysia’s economy. Moreover, there is very little scope for policymakers to support growth with fiscal or monetary loosening. We... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Macri makes impressive start Mauricio Macri has made a strong start to his term as president of Argentina, tackling some of the country’s biggest macroeconomic distortions in his first month in office. There’s work still to do –... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A challenging year ahead 2016 won’t be an easy year for the UK economy, given the renewed fiscal squeeze and probable EU referendum in particular. Nonetheless, we expect it to weather these clouds relatively well and... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing policy risks in Brazil Fears that Brazil’s government will respond to a deepening recession by resorting to populist economic policies have surfaced over the past week. As things stand, we don’t think there is much evidence... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How will the Bank of Japan react to cheaper oil? The Bank of Japan will probably lower its inflation forecasts and push back the timing for reaching its 2% target yet again later this month. With cheaper energy keeping a lid on inflation, the recent... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mohammed bin Salman fleshes out Saudi Arabia’s economic plans In an interview with The Economist published earlier today, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (or MbS, as he is known locally) outlined encouragingly ambitious fiscal and reform... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC stresses risks from loose fiscal policy Romanian National Bank Governor Mugur Isarescu gave little away at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference, but the tone of the accompanying statement suggested that the MPC is concerned about... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia chooses fiscal squeeze rather than devaluation The fresh drop in oil prices has once again prompted speculation that Saudi Arabia will follow other major oil producers and devalue its currency. But we think this will only be used as a last resort... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of renewed intervention in China Renewed intervention by the authorities in China may not be enough to prevent further falls in local equity markets, but even in the event of a sell-off the macroeconomic consequences should be small... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget sets Kingdom up for fiscal squeeze Saudi Arabia’s budget for 2016 released at the end of last year sets the Kingdom up for a period of fiscal consolidation. The plans outlined will help to rein in the country’s large twin budget and... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Can Thailand move out of the slow lane? Thailand’s economy has had a disappointing decade, partly reflecting the economic costs of prolonged political conflict. The military-backed government’s recent efforts to address Thailand’s... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) The latest fiscal data suggested that the peripheral countries continued to improve their budgetary positions at the back end of 2015. But there is a distinct risk of fiscal slippage in 2016... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
