Europe Chart Pack A weak start to the year Hard data for the fourth quarter of last year, including GDP estimates for some countries and industrial production and retail sales figures for the region as a whole, suggest that euro-zone GDP... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of Russia’s privatisation plans The recent talk of a new wave of privatisation in Russia has attracted much attention, but we suspect that there is less to the proposed plans than meets the eye. While these may temporarily improve... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries shed light on fiscal plans The raft of budgets announced in the Gulf over the past month should help to ease concerns that these countries lack a clear agenda to adjust to cheap oil. The Saudi government has already cut energy... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fiscal success in FY15/16, but tougher challenges await As attention turns to the government’s FY16/17 budget announcement on 29 th February, the finance ministry can look back on what appears to have been a successful FY15/16. We think that this year’s... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Headwinds strengthen in key African economies Recent figures have only strengthened our belief that the challenges facing Africa’s three largest economies are growing. Nigeria’s botched response to low oil prices has caused the currency to plunge... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How sustainable are public debt burdens? Over the past few years, the governments of most advanced economies have made a lot of progress in repairing the damage caused to their public finances by the global financial crisis. The majority... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Key challenges await Vietnam’s new leadership Vietnam’s new top leadership team, which has just been unveiled, takes the reins at a key moment for the economy. Although short-term prospects remain good, further reforms are needed for the economy... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia puts fiscal discipline ahead of growth Malaysia’s government cut its spending plans for 2016 today in response to recent declines in global oil prices. While Malaysia’s commitment to fiscal discipline is encouraging, it will come at the... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt: recapping the risks The dangers posed by a rapid build-up in EM debt have come back into the spotlight in recent weeks. In this Focus we revisit the lessons from history. Three points stand out – with potentially ominous... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Policymakers stalling for time amid uncertain outlook Despite a rapidly deteriorating outlook, the Bank of Canada defended its recent inaction on interest rates on the basis of it not knowing the details of the upcoming Federal budget, due to be... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances & Retail Sales (Dec.) While the latest figures brought some better news on the public finances, the Chancellor still looks likely to overshoot his target this year. Meanwhile, despite the sharp fall in retail sales in... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has deficit reduction slowed? The recent slowdown in the pace of deficit reduction seems to reflect both timing effects and a weaker economic performance than anticipated. Although progress may remain slow in the near term, we... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Market turmoil not justified by economic reality Despite the prevailing gloom about the world economy, we think global growth will pick up from around 2½% last year to 3% in both 2016 and 2017, using our own estimates for China. Growth should be... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lower privatisation targets would boost credibility With only two months of this fiscal year remaining, the finance ministry’s aim of raising nearly INR700bn in revenues through the privatisation of various state-owned companies looks impossible to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran sanctions relief: assessing the impact Sanctions relief should support a revival of Iran’s economy and a short period in which it enjoys growth of as much as 6-8%. But there is unlikely to be much impact on the rest of the region, either... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of Russia’s fiscal plans There appears to be a great deal of confusion surrounding Russia’s fiscal plans for this year – including a mooted 10% cut in government spending that the cabinet has reportedly agreed this week. In... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
