Global Economics Update Are negative policy rates a plus for the world economy? Negative interest rates have come under attack recently, but in our view most of the criticisms are over-stated. In particular, the costs of negative rates for commercial banks appear to be very small... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Storm clouds gather over Lebanon Recent announcements by the Gulf countries that they will cut off financial support to Lebanon and slap a travel ban on the country are likely to have a larger political than economic impact. But if... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress Official statements at the National People’s Congress have signalled, as expected, that the immediate economic priority is to support growth including with a looser fiscal stance and more monetary... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deficit paranoia is mind-bogglingly stupid The hysterical response to the news that the Federal budget deficit might increase to as much as $30bn next year left us shaking our heads in dismay. Canadian economists are still stuck in the Paul... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Take referendum propaganda with a pinch of salt Capital Economics does not have a strong axe to grind either way on the EU question. But we do feel that many of the arguments put forward on both sides are exaggerated – including those from the... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Law and Justice’s first few months in power Poland’s Law and Justice Party has had a whirlwind first few months in power and, in this Watch, we look at the policies introduced so far. The short point is that fiscal measures have been more or... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress China’s annual National People’s Congress starts on Saturday. Among the headline announcements are likely to be GDP growth targets for this year and beyond that are unrealistically high and will do... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Finance ministry’s revenue assumptions look too optimistic Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s budget on Monday was well received, with targets for further reductions in the deficit left unchanged and projected spending in key areas ramped up. But the plans are... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Short-term costs of a Brexit wouldn’t derail recovery Although we think that the UK will do well in the long run whether inside or outside of the EU, there is clearly potential for a disruptive short-term impact from the uncertainty that would be seen... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could savings on EU contributions boost the economy? One of the advantages of a vote to leave the EU would be the savings the UK could potentially make on its EU contributions. This money could in theory be used to give a boost to the economy, but there... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies improved their budgetary positions at the start of 2016. Further consolidation is likely this year but political pressures may... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland’s economy after the election As expected, the Irish election did not provide a clear victor. It is possible that uncertainty while the parties negotiate to form a coalition government could hurt the economy. But the Irish economy... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy ended last year on a weak note Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply at the end of last year and, as the fiscal squeeze begins to bite, we expect growth to weaken to just 1.5% this year. 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FY16/17 budget: finance ministry stays on consolidation path At first glance, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley appears to have pulled off a difficult balancing act in today’s nbudget announcement. The tighter deficit targets have been left unchanged, while the... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Improving outlook in Indonesia, but problems persist Indonesia’s economy now looks to be past the worst, but the government will need to make further progress on reform if growth is to break above 5% over the next couple of years. We don’t think it is... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia not about to change tack on oil policy Recent comments from Saudi Arabia’s veteran Oil Minister Ali al- Naimi have dashed hopes that had been growing in some quarters that the Kingdom was about to shift direction on its oil market policy... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
