Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia Budget Preview: Gambling with the AAA credit rating Treasurer Scott Morrison will put Australia’s AAA credit rating at risk in Tuesday’s Federal Budget by revealing a net rise in spending in an attempt to gain favour ahead of the probable election on... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain will continue to miss its fiscal targets Political uncertainty and slowing growth imply that Spain’s budget deficit targets are too optimistic. As such, Spain looks set to breach the EU’s 3% deficit limit for at least two more years. And, in... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Dollars go from helping to hindering The recent strength of both the Australian and New Zealand dollars means that interest rates will have to fall further than widely expected to solve the twin problems of too slow economic growth and... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Are Asia’s policymakers running out of fiscal firepower? Most governments in Emerging Asia have room to support their economies by loosening fiscal policy further in the event that growth continues to disappoint. However, there are a few countries, namely... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: time to throw in the towel? A combination of tighter monetary and fiscal policy will offset the benefits of a weaker peso and keep the brakes on Mexico’s economy over the coming years. Nonetheless, we don’t think it’s time to... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: CBE’s deficit financing adds to pressures on the pound The Egyptian government seems to be increasingly reliant on the central bank to finance the budget deficit. If this persists, inflation is likely to remain elevated and downward pressure on the pound... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Ukraine still needs the IMF At first sight, the sharp fall in Ukraine’s current account deficit over the past few years suggests that the economy’s external vulnerabilities have diminished significantly. But that masks the fact... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Treasury’s Brexit report rests on some pessimistic assumptions The report by HM Treasury, published today, on the long-run economic impact of a Brexit, paints a fairly gloomy picture. However, this is just another in what is an extensive and wide-ranging set of... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s first bailout review still not a done deal The protracted and difficult negotiations surrounding the first review of Greece’s third bailout underline the challenges that still lie ahead for Greece, its creditors and the euro-zone’s... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy to benefit from slightly looser fiscal policy Fiscal policy in advanced economies is set to be loosened this year for the first time since 2010. Governments in the US and Canada have increased spending while budget deficits in many European... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada will cut rates later this year The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold interest rates at 0.50% and to remain neutral on the rate outlook was largely in response to the improvement in economic growth early this year, fiscal stimulus... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: notes from the ground Concerns about the deepening political crisis understandably dominated our conversations during a trip to Brazil this week, with a growing number of local market participants now warning of complete... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Has monetary policy lost its power? We do not share the view that monetary policy has become impotent. However, scope to step up monetary stimulus much beyond current levels is small. The Bank of Japan’s efforts to boost growth and lift... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF still behind the curve Despite being revised down yet again, we think the IMF’s latest projections for global growth are still too high. This is partly because the IMF appears to be constrained by the official, government... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Darker business mood at odds with recent GDP rebound Despite glimmers of a revival in production, the mood among businesses across most sectors and regions has darkened due to shrinking real incomes and weak domestic demand, with the low level of... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances leave a lot to be desired The Egyptian government faces a tough task in meeting its budget deficit target for the upcoming fiscal year and, worryingly, there seems to be a growing sense that the authorities are wavering on... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
