Africa Economics Update South Africa: Trade surplus positive news ahead of ratings review Today’s trade figures will provide some support for the South African rand. But the currency still faces significant headwinds given political uncertainty and the looming risk of a government credit... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Few surprises expected at OPEC meeting This week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna is likely to pass without any major surprises. Policymakers should be a little happier heading into the meeting than they were at the previous one in December –... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Positive signs from Germany but more stimulus needed The German economy got off to a strong start to the year. The healthy 0.7% expansion of GDP in Q1 was driven primarily by a pick-up in investment but also increases in public and private consumption... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Even a small Brexit hit could leave fiscal rules broken Relatively small overshoots in public sector borrowing, like that shown in last week’s figures, could soon pale into insignificance if the UK were to vote to leave the EU next month. Indeed, the... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How will the sales tax decision affect the outlook? A decision on whether to go ahead with the sales tax hike scheduled for next April will be announced in coming weeks. If the tax rise is postponed, GDP growth next year would be considerably stronger... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation a last resort In spite of the backdrop of the recent recovery in oil prices, which broke through US$50pb today for the first time this year, speculation has mounted that Saudi Arabia will devalue its currency. We... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil: promising policies, problematic politics Events in Brazil have dominated the past month. The new government under interim president, Michel Temer, has announced a string of market-friendly policies aimed at stabilising the economy, but it... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup’s Greek debt pledges fall a long way short The likely disbursement of the next tranche of Greece’s third bailout may have reduced the risk of a summer flare-up of the country’s debt crisis. But with the creditors’ pledges on debt relief... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack PM Modi's first two years end on a high note Two years on from his inauguration, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arguably just enjoyed his most successful month in office. For a start, PM Modi's BJP secured two important legislative victories... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil fiscal package: lofty rhetoric, but implementation a risk Brazil’s Finance Minister, Henrique Meirelles, has unveiled the first part of his planned fiscal adjustment. Our initial take is that the plans are lofty in ambition, but so far lacking in detail... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) The disappointing tone of the latest public borrowing figures ended the recent short run of more upbeat economic data and indicated that the Chancellor has started the fiscal year on the back foot. 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Treasury’s Brexit recession warning seems overdone We think the Treasury (HMT) report, published today, suggesting that the UK will go into recession if it leaves the EU goes a bit far. Existing trading relationships will remain in place over the two... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Higher energy prices to lift headline inflation Our central theme that the Fed will be forced to raise rates much more aggressively than markets expect continues to unfold. The two deflationary shocks of 2015 – the surge in the dollar and the slump... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the EC become more lenient on fiscal policy? On the face of it, last week’s decisions by the European Commission to allow Italy greater flexibility in its budget, and not to fine Spain and Portugal for their large deficits, suggest that it has... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: policy tightening underway, but work still to do Argentina’s long-overdue policy tightening – needed to address the country’s entrenched inflation problem – is finally underway, but with the fiscal deficit still large and inflation in excess of 40%... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G7 finance ministers This weekend’s G7 finance ministers meeting in Sendai, Japan, is likely to focus on exchange rate and fiscal policy and to end with another warning about the dangers of Brexit. However, no major... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
