Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q2) The slowdown in Peruvian GDP growth in Q2 was due to a weakening of domestic demand. But, with the new government intent on loosening fiscal policy to stimulate the economy, we doubt the slowdown will... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Regional growth to improve as Brazil exits recession The downturn in Latin America is starting to bottom out and growth should return as we enter 2017. The region’s largest economy – Brazil – is turning the corner and our growth forecasts for the next... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Gradual acceleration, but recovery will be slow After two years of progressively slower growth, most African economies will strengthen in 2017. This recovery will be driven by rising commodity prices, which should ease strains in the balance of... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) July’s public finances figures gave us the first indication of how the vote to leave the EU will slow progress in reducing the deficit over the coming years. But the new Chancellor shouldn’t lose much... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia faces a painful period of post-election austerity Zambia’s disputed election has raised the risk of a period of political uncertainty, but with the vote out of the way, we think that it’s now likely that the government will agree to a long-delayed... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would unconventional policy look like? We don’t currently believe that the RBA or RBNZ will have to resort to unconventional monetary policy to boost inflation, but one lesson of the past decade is that we should be prepared for the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea’s rate pause to continue The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.25%. With fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, we think it will take another downturn in the growth outlook to convince... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Growth not strong enough to boost price pressures Weak survey evidence notwithstanding, the economy likely continued to recover in the second quarter, while the labour market has rarely been tighter. However, wage growth remains anaemic and the past... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stimulus package doesn’t let the BoJ off the hook The fiscal stimulus package approved by the Cabinet today will boost growth by much less than the headline figure suggests. As such, the Bank of Japan still has more work to do reach its 2% inflation... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How could fiscal policy be reset? We think new Chancellor Philip Hammond’s fiscal policy “reset” resulting from Brexit will involve some discretionary loosening. This will come on top of automatic stabilisers which will lower receipts... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: What to look for when CBN clarifies naira policy The long delay in explaining its new FX policy is another blow to the credibility of the Central Bank of Nigeria. In this note, we examine three key questions raised by the current FX policy... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) There was some good news last month for public finances in the euro-zone’s periphery as Moody’s upgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt and the EC decided to be lenient with Portugal and Spain after both... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Domestic strength can’t keep propping up Emerging Asia Economic growth in Emerging Asia has remained remarkably steady over the past year, even as export demand has stalled. However, policy support and lower oil prices will not continue to prop up... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1) The drop in Brazil Q1 GDP was much smaller than had been expected but only because of a jump in government spending. With fiscal policy set to tighten over the second half of the year, this prop to... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Delay in sales tax hike brightens outlook for 2017 The delay that has just been confirmed in the sales tax hike will result in economic activity being stronger than would have been the case next year. The decision diminishes pressure on the Bank of... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will a new government halve Spanish unemployment? In order to cut Spanish unemployment significantly, the parties that gain power after voters return to the polls in June will need to focus on retraining the workforce. But even if schemes were... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
