Emerging Markets Economics Update EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes The sudden sell-off in EMs that started on Friday, triggered by hawkish comments from the head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengreen, points to a turbulent period ahead for EM financial markets as the... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: big budget cuts to weigh on 2017 growth, mining sector Substantial cuts to government spending announced by Mexico’s new finance minister José Meade in the 2017 budget reinforce our view that GDP growth will be weaker than the consensus expects next year... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal targets moving out of reach Japan’s budget deficit has narrowed in recent years, mostly because of 2014’s sales tax hike. However, tax revenues have started to fall relative to output as corporate profits are weakening and... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the pendulum swinging towards fiscal stimulus? With global growth still lacklustre, monetary policy seemingly ineffective and government bond yields unprecedentedly low, the case for fiscal stimulus has become more compelling. Partly as a result... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2) The return of the Australian economy in the second quarter to the growth rates seen before the end of the mining boom relieves some of the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates again, at least in... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fiscal deficit target is under pressure The rapid expansion of the government deficit in the early part of this fiscal year is a common occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in the latter months. However, unlike in previous years... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: revisiting the hit from lower oil prices Saudi Arabia’s upcoming Eurobond issuance has thrust the country’s finances back under the spotlight. Overall, the hit from lower oil prices has been significant – annual oil export revenues are down... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Troubled States only a small part of Brazil’s fiscal problems There is little doubt that the finances of Brazil’s State governments are in dire straits, but there is some confusion as to how this relates to the wider fiscal position. The key point is that the... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack No post-Brexit crisis, but world economy still struggling The latest surveys suggest that the UK economy has slowed but not slumped following the EU referendum, while growth in the world as a whole has remained sluggish. The US economy looks set to pick up a... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Risk of Spain missing its deficit targets is building As Mariano Rajoy would benefit most from another election, his opponents may yet let him form a government. But with the public finances deteriorating and the deadline for the 2017 budget to be... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone government finances at the start of the third quarter of 2016 were much more of a mixed bag than the reasonably impressive figures from the first half of the year. Worryingly, the data... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rousseff’s removal will shift attention to fiscal reforms The vote by Brazil’s Senate to formally remove President Rousseff from office was a foregone conclusion and is unlikely to have a major impact on markets. Attention will now shift to the passage of... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What conditions will be attached to Egypt’s IMF deal? The Egyptian authorities seem close to securing an IMF deal, but the conditions attached to lending have been a stumbling block to a bailout in the past and opposition has already started to emerge... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy risks cast shadow over fragile economies Official data released over the past month mostly suggested that African economies improved a touch, but a series of political shocks has hit investor confidence. The most high-profile of these as... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack More good news for Indonesia, but problems lie ahead The past month has given investors more reasons to be optimistic on the outlook for Indonesia’s economy. The first piece of good news came in late July when it was announced that the highly-respected... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Two major reasons for cheer Over the past month, two key developments in India have given investors reason to cheer. The first is the passage of the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill, which could bring huge benefits... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
