Asia Economic Outlook Loose monetary and fiscal policy to support growth While Emerging Asia continues to face headwinds, loose fiscal and monetary policy in most economies should continue to support demand over the next couple of years, and we expect regional growth to... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: first thoughts on the implications of the OPEC deal Last night’s OPEC deal to cut output is short on details, although our sense is that it’s unlikely to be a game-changer for Saudi Arabia, even if it shoulders most of the burden of the fall in... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much of a concern are Russia’s public finances? The fall in oil prices has caused a considerable deterioration in Russia’s budget position, forcing the government to dip into its oil reserves. In this Update, we answer six key questions on the... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Myanmar: A six month progress report In the six months since Myanmar’s new civilian government took power, it has made a decent start in addressing some of the country’s problems. However, Myanmar will not fulfil its potential unless the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia likely to stick with fiscal austerity There have been signs in recent weeks that the sharp slowdown in the Saudi economy caused by fiscal austerity may have prompted the authorities to look at alternative solutions to deal with the... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Governments tighten the purse strings The past month has seen governments across Latin America announce belt-tightening measures for 2017 as part of their continued efforts to repair balance sheets following the drop in commodity revenues... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) The improvement in the public finances in August is unlikely to continue as the post-referendum economic slowdown begins to bite and Chancellor Hammond probably eases the fiscal squeeze in the Autumn... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rollout of GST is edging closer Progress in implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) since the bill was passed in parliament in early August has so far been fairly smooth. However, there are still a number of sticking points... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A look ahead to Saudi Arabia’s international bond issuance Saudi Arabia’s upcoming international bond sale has sparked a lot of investor interest and we estimate that the Kingdom will manage to sell its 10-year debt for a relatively low yield of 3.50-3.75%... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight fiscal policy to stifle recoveries in commodity producers The majority of governments in commodity-producing EMs are still in the process of adjusting to the new reality of lower commodity prices and are being forced to cut spending. Accordingly, while... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update United Russia’s election victory reinforces Putin’s grip on power The sweeping victory for United Russia in Sunday’s parliamentary vote reinforces the view that President Putin’s grip on power hasn’t been shaken by two years of recession. The direction of policy is... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What next for Brazil? Brazil’s economy is bottoming out and, while the recovery will be slow going, our 2017 GDP forecast is a bit above consensus. Inflation should ease and, although COPOM will move gradually in the first... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q2 2016) GDP figures published today show economic growth in Sri Lanka slowed sharply inthe second quarter of 2016. Given the serious doubts that remain about the reliabilityof the data, we are wary of reading... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Extension of “Juncker plan” would not be a game-changer The “Juncker plan” has done little to boost investment. Accordingly, an extension of the scheme, proposed by President Juncker this morning, is unlikely to raise the euro-zone’s growth prospects. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: dodging near-term default, kicks can down the road An imminent restructuring of the short term dollar debt of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, means that the severely cash-strapped government should avoid default over the next 12 months... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Eurobond provides boost to confidence in fragile economy The successful launch of Ghana’s fifth Eurobond is a sign of the markets’ growing confidence in the country. While the economy remains fragile, we expect that the worst is now behind us. 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
