US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus coming, but trade a wildcard Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory means that we are likely to see a major fiscal stimulus enacted in the first half of next year. As a result, we now expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.7%... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What now for Italy? Italy has taken the first step along a path that could lead it out of the euro-zone. There are still many obstacles to an Italian exit. But as long as the country’s future is uncertain, bond yields... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Would a lower corporate tax rate boost economic growth? We are sceptical of the claim made last week by Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, that lowering taxes, particularly corporate taxes, will be enough to boost average annual... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Pension reform to improve health of public finances A proposed reform to better link pension payments with movements in wages should improve the viability of Japan’s public finances. For current workers though, the reform may force them to delay... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s pound float: short-term pain, long-term gain The 50% fall in the Egyptian pound against the US dollar since the central bank floated the currency at the start of November will cause economic growth to slow sharply in the coming quarters... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3) The sharp slowdown in Colombian GDP growth, to just 1.2% y/y in Q3 from 2.0% y/y in Q2, was due in part to the effects of a truck drivers’ strike. With the dispute having now ended, Q3 may prove to be... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Fiscal watchdog joins debate on Brexit impact This week brought the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) first assessment of the effect of the Brexit vote on the economy and the public finances. This was more upbeat than had been anticipated... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Chancellor “just about manages” to help consumers The net giveaway to consumers in the Autumn Statement was small compared to previouslyannounced takeaways. Accordingly, fiscal policy should still weigh on households’ spending power over the next few... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the OBR too gloomy about Brexit? The Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic forecasts garnered more attention than usual after last week’s Autumn Statement, and have been criticised by some for being too gloomy on Brexit. On the... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Strong domestic demand helping to offset weak exports Regional GDP growth held steady at just under 4% last quarter, with buoyant domestic demand again helping to offset weak exports. With subdued global growth set to continue holding back exports, the... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Did Mr Hammond squander a golden opportunity? Philip Hammond’s first (and last) Autumn Statement has been generally well received as a compromise between the conflicting needs to repair the UK public finances and provide the economy with more... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Anti-corruption drive has further to run The government’s shock demonetisation announcement earlier this month was its boldest measure yet to tackle corruption and formalise large parts of the shadow economy, but it is unlikely to be the... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2016: Creating room for manoeuvre The recent robustness of the economy prompted the Chancellor to make only a modest adjustment to the stance of fiscal policy in his first Autumn Statement. But his new fiscal rules provide room for... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would Trump’s repatriation tax boost the US stock market? While Donald Trump’s plan to tax retained corporate income held offshore at 10% could encourage US multinationals to repatriate funds, we doubt that it would provide a big boost to the S&P 500. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing and Trump add to list of economy’s woes The economy has recovered from the temporary disruption caused by the wildfires earlier this year and the slump in mining-related investment, triggered by the collapse in oil prices last year, is... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
