Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) Recent data have brought further signs that public finances in the euro-zone’s periphery are improving. But January saw the sharpest monthly rises in bond yields since mid-2015, probably caused by... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) Indonesia recorded another quarter of disappointing growth in the final quarter of last year. With commodity prices likely to remain depressed and policymakers running out of scope to stimulate the... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dissecting Russia’s new fiscal rule Russia’s new “fiscal rule”, which takes effect this week, is unusual insofar as it governs how the budget deficit is financed, rather than anchoring either the size of the deficit or the scale of... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FY17/18 budget: slower pace of consolidation The finance ministry faced a delicate balancing act in today’s budget announcement for FY17/18 as it aimed to boost demand while also demonstrating its commitment to fiscal prudence. Given this, it is... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets right to be taking President Trump in their stride? Investors have turned a blind eye to the controversy and chaos that has characterised President Trump’s first ten days in the White House. Such indifference may prove to be complacent. The longer his... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Brexit resilience to continue While there are still considerable uncertainties over the economic outlook, we maintain our view that the damage from the UK’s vote to leave the EU will be smaller than most forecasters have... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Era of global QE not over yet The widespread pick-up in activity and rebound in inflation in advanced economies during recent months has reduced the pressure for central banks to ease policy further. But only in the US do we... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: will the government’s fiscal reforms be enough? The big fiscal squeeze that the Egyptian government has signed up for as part of its IMF deal will, if fully implemented, bring the debt ratio down. However, the authorities are likely to struggle to... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Budget preview: a tricky balancing act The finance ministry faces a delicate balancing act in the upcoming union budget for FY17/18, which will be unveiled on 1st February. On the one hand, it will be aiming to boost demand following... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) The improvement in the public finances in December means that borrowing in the current fiscal year should be slightly below the OBR’s November forecasts. And we think stronger GDP growth will result... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Attention turns to state elections Upcoming state elections in India are likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be crucial in... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rising wage growth won’t worry the MPC While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has stated that it is willing to look through a period of exchange-rate driven above-target inflation, one of its conditions is that there are no significant... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do Trump’s latest comments mean for Europe? The US President-elect’s perceived attempts to talk the dollar down and threat to impose tariffs on BMW imports to the US have limited implications for the euro-zone’s export prospects. But his... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone back in the spotlight in 2017 The European economies have continued to fare relatively well, with euro-zone growth in particular supported by a weaker currency and low inflation. However, a temporary surge in inflation this year... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Formation of new Icelandic Government opens door for further rate cuts In the land of fire and ice, currency movements in 2016 resembled an erupting volcano rather than a creeping glacier. The appreciating króna put downward pressure on inflation, prompting the Central... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
