Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Strong growth throughout, but policy to diverge Prospects appear to have improved for all of the Nordic and Swiss economies, with surveys pointing to annual GDP growth of up to 3% in Switzerland and 5% in Sweden. Inflation has been subdued on the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Hammond now “reset” fiscal policy? By freeing the Government from its previous manifesto commitments, the snap general election on June 8th could give the Chancellor Phillip Hammond (if he is still in the position) more elbow room to... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Household credit boom set to slow Household borrowing has soared over recent months, largely in the form of mortgages. But this boom is probably nearing an end. Restrictions on property purchases have been reintroduced in many cities... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Farmer loan waivers a cause for concern The recent approval of a bailout package for indebted farmers in Uttar Pradesh fulfils an election pledge from the BJP, but should also raise concern. The unconditional debt write-off could set a... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump faces several near-term challenges President Donald Trump’s new-found enthusiasm for realpolitik rather than the “America First” doctrine he championed in his inaugural speech is encouraging, but his administration still faces several... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf: improving budget positions to allow austerity to ease Budget positions across the Gulf should improve over the next couple of years – and many will return to surplus – supported in large part by higher oil prices. As a result, governments across the... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. African fiscal policy: What would be the first sign of a shift? South Africa’s cabinet reshuffle probably won’t have a significant effect on fiscal policy in 2017/2018. In this Update, we highlight what to watch for as the new finance minister settles into his... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Greek government revenues fell sharply at the start of the year. While there has been a provisional deal on new reforms, the next bailout payment is still some way off. With uncertainty weighing on... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Balance sheet stronger than many assume S&P’s decision to cut South Africa’s credit rating to “junk” has focused attention on the country’s current account and budget deficits. But South Africa’s balance sheet is actually in better shape... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New economic zone won’t match Shenzhen, Pudong China’s government recently launched a new economic zone near Beijing that it is billing as the most important project of its kind since the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and Shanghai’s Pudong New... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST a step closer to reality The passage of key legislation through the Lok Sabha marks another important step towards implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). The legislation also provides greater clarity on the exact... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic growth to slow again Economic growth has picked up recently, but we aren’t convinced the economy has turned the corner, particularly not when that growth is still so unbalanced. Non-commodity exports are lagging and... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Health care failure doesn’t derail prospects for tax reform The health care bill fiasco doesn’t necessarily alter our view on the prospect for tax cuts. We had already pushed back our forecast of both the potential size of any fiscal stimulus and its timing... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: what to make of Aramco’s tax cut Today’s decision by the Saudi authorities to lower the tax rate applied to Aramco is unlikely to have any impact on the Kingdom’s day-to-day public finances. Instead, it simply reflects a shift in the... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump’s agenda gets a reality check The debate over the Republicans’ health care bill last week is the clearest indication yet that implementing President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda won’t be as easy as he may have hoped. Although... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Duterte undermining reform prospects in the Philippines Struggles to push through much-needed tax reform in the Philippines are the first sign that President Duterte’s controversial war on drugs and offensive behaviour is undermining the efforts of his... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
