China Economics Update What would make policymakers change course? The weak activity and spending data published yesterday add to evidence that growth in China is starting to slow. We think the deceleration in the economy will be gradual and expect official efforts... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Infrastructure: Don’t believe the hype Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison made a big song and dance about new infrastructure spending in the Federal Budget. But while he shouldn’t be considered a public enemy as some new infrastructure... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will tax cuts boost sustainable GDP growth to 3 percent? There is little evidence to support the claim by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that tax cuts would pay for themselves by boosting economic growth to 3% or even higher, particularly not when the... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi public finance figures suggest big spending cuts are over New quarterly public finance figures released by the Saudi government today show a sharp narrowing in the budget deficit at the start of this year, supported by higher oil revenues. The data also... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget response: Where’s the boost to the economy? Despite all the headlines suggesting that the Treasurer has embarked on an infrastructure spending spree, the fiscal figures appear to show that the economy is not going to be significantly stronger... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does Moon’s victory mean for South Korea? The election of Moon Jae-in as South Korea’s next president is unlikely to have a major impact on the country’s economic outlook. Moon’s Democratic Party not only lacks a majority in parliament, but... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An infrastructure Budget would be good for the economy We’re not too keen on the plans of the Australian Treasurer to distinguish “good” debt from “bad” debt in the Federal Budget on Tuesday, but we do like the sound of a budget that is expected to... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) General government figures for 2016 revealed that most euro-zone countries’ fiscal positions improved last year, although some countries still fell short of their targets. Meanwhile, timelier central... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the primary budget be in surplus in 2020? Japan’s budget deficit has fallen sharply in recent years but improvements are now likely to slow, with the result that the government will struggle to achieve its target of a primary budget surplus... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could a foreign profit tax pay for Trump’s fiscal plans? The tax plan released by the White House on Wednesday was short on detail, but looked broadly similar to President Donald Trump’s pre-election plan. With the deep cuts to individual income and... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does more need to be done to bring the deficit down? The large fall in public borrowing in the 2016-17 fiscal year could suggest that the process of deficit reduction is almost complete and that the Conservatives can keep their pledge not to raise the... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump's new tax plan looks a lot like the old one The “new” tax plan that the White House unveiled today looks a lot like President Donald Trump’s old economic plan from the election campaign, with deep cuts to corporate and individual tax rates... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fiscal policy likely to be eased slightly this year and next We expect aggregate fiscal policy in advanced economies to be loosened slightly in the coming year or two. President Trump will not succeed in passing the “phenomenal” tax cuts which he has promised... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Mar.) March’s public sector finances figures confirmed the large fall in borrowing that the OBR expected for the 2016-17 fiscal year. However, with much of the drop due to temporary factors, borrowing will... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Sensex rises to record highs Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early April. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi benefit cut U-turn not a major cause for alarm The Saudi government’s decision to reinstate benefits for civil servants appears to be a U-turn on one of the more unpopular austerity measures, rather than the start of a wholesale reversal of recent... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
