Europe Chart Pack Rising orders bode well for euro-zone exports Net trade probably contributed little to euro-zone GDP growth in Q1, but the outlook for exports is encouraging. The monthly goods export and import values data show a decline in the goods trade... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Korea’s supplementary budget? South Korea’s new government today announced plans for a supplementary budget worth 11.2trn won (0.7% of GDP). But with parliament approval by no means guaranteed, we are not raising our growth... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Markets bank on comfortable Conservative win Despite the recent narrowing in the opinion polls, markets still seem to be banking on a sizeable Conservative majority in Thursday’s General Election. Any different outcome could therefore have a... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Election 2017 Preview With major differences between the main parties both on Brexit and the stance and mix of fiscal policy, the outcome of the general election on June 8th could have a rather greater impact on the... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling showdown looms again Congress might need to raise the debt ceiling by late August, a little earlier than previously anticipated, and it has become increasingly clear that, even though the Republicans control both Houses... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) The latest fiscal data revealed mixed performances by the euro-zone’s peripheral economies, with the largest countries faring best. There was also good news for Portugal, which is no longer deemed to... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three reasons not to fear Fed balance sheet normalisation There are still plenty of unanswered questions about the Fed’s plans to reduce the size of its balance sheet, but there are at least three reasons to think that it won’t cause a major dislocation in... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump budget only an opening gambit The White House budget proposal for the 2018 fiscal year, which incorporates severe cuts to non-defence discretionary spending and entitlement spending, is never going to pass the Senate, which... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The outlook for Latin America is improving and we expect economic growth to accelerate over the next year. The latest political crisis to engulf Brazil has cast fresh doubts over the outlook there but... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update What could Trump’s budget mean for energy commodities? Donald Trump’s budget proposal is unlikely to dramatically alter the energy and oil markets, even if Congress does not significantly temper them. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) April’s public sector finances set the scene for a rise in borrowing for the 2017-18 fiscal year as a whole. However, the increase in borrowing should be temporary and fiscal policy is still set to... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Another obstacle cleared on road to GST The consensus reached between India’s national and state governments on how different products will be dealt with under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) marks another important step towards its... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal out of the EDP, but not out of the woods Portugal is on the brink of exiting the “corrective arm” of the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure, but it is a long way from escaping strict EU oversight of its budget. 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Do voters have a real fiscal choice this time? The release of party manifestos this week highlighted that, unlike in recent elections, the two main parties offer voters a real fiscal choice this time. Labour would borrow significantly more than... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Narrow budget deficit obscures fiscal strains Despite some fiscal loosening, we expect that Nigeria’s federal budget deficit will be just 2.5% of GDP in 2017. But this measure provides a misleading sense of the country’s fiscal health. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour would ease the fiscal squeeze significantly If implemented, the Labour manifesto could boost GDP growth – by increasing investment spending – at the cost of higher debt which would potentially result in higher interest rates. 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
