Europe Economics Weekly CDU manifesto does little to alter German outlook Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union unveiled its manifesto this week, including plans income tax cuts and increased child benefits. But the proposed giveaways are small and the party, which... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Regional slowdown approaching a trough The slowdown in the Middle East and North Africa should bottom out in the second half of this year and growth is likely to strengthen in 2018-19. In the Gulf, the hit to headline GDP growth from OPEC... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Health care reform could provide a small boost to economy There is still considerable uncertainty over whether Congress will vote to approve a new healthcare bill but, if it does, the short-term effects on the economy would probably be mildly positive and... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update LDP will have to respond to crushing defeat in Tokyo While the ruling LDP’s severe defeat in local elections in Tokyo is not necessarily a bellwether to developments at the national level, we think that the government may respond with a larger... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) The latest fiscal data revealed a mixed performance by the euro-zone’s peripheral countries, with Ireland faring particularly well. Meanwhile, Greece reached a deal with its creditors but, in the... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the Illinois’ budget crisis a one-off? Even if Illinois legislators manage to agree on a new budget and stave off the threat of a credit rating downgrade in the near-term, adverse demographics mean that the public finances in Illinois and... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Public debt set to rebound Efforts to curtail off-budget borrowing by local governments have recently helped slow the rise of China’s public debt ratio. But a further rise in government debt is almost certain in future as it... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Overhauling financial year would bring little economic benefit Shifting the start of India’s financial year from April to January, as the government appears to be considering, would align it with the norm in most other countries and therefore make life easier for... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State profligacy is undermining centre’s gains Discussions on the health of India’s public finances often focus exclusively on the national level, where relatively good progress has been made reining in the budget deficit in recent years. Less... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack RBI wields new powers The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has started to put to use its new powers to clean up the banking sector. Earlier this month it instructed several commercial banks to begin insolvency proceedings... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) May’s figures suggest that the public sector finances have made a solid start to the fiscal year, although we doubt that this will continue for too much longer. And fiscal policy is still set to... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would happen if Brazil fails to pass pension reform? If Brazil’s pension reforms were to collapse, the immediate impact on the economy would be determined by the knock-on effects to broader financial conditions. Over the longer term, we estimate that a... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate, but downside risks mounting In our baseline scenario, which still includes a fiscal stimulus early next year, we expect GDP growth to accelerate from 2.2% this year to 2.5% in 2018. The downside risks to that scenario have... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is austerity over? While the general election result may prompt the Government to slow down the planned pace of fiscal tightening a bit, it would be wrong to conclude that austerity’s days are numbered. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well placed to withstand Fed interest rate hikes The US Fed looks almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting later today. For most of Emerging Asia, higher rates in the US do not pose a major threat, even if the US Fed ends up hiking... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation plans face hurdles Renewed talk of the government ramping up its privatisation drive is welcome, but its aim of raising INR725bn through asset sales of various state-owned companies this year still looks unrealistic. In... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
