Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation stayed in negative territory in September, but with fresh subsidy cuts and the introduction of a new value-added tax on the horizon, we expect it to jump to 4.0-4.5% in the coming... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Deficit within target, but finances weak Nigeria’s budget deficit is, perhaps surprisingly, smaller than the government had expected. But this comes at a significant economic cost. And even the country’s small shortfall may prove hard to... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Calculating the potential fiscal cost of loan waivers Announcements of debt write-offs for farmers in a number of Indian states in recent months have grabbed the headlines. In this Update, we attempt to calculate the fiscal cost of the announced waivers... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST gets political A number of recent tweaks to the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) appear to be attempts to shore up support for the BJP ahead of the upcoming state in election in Gujarat rather than attempts to... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus The Party Congress - a Primer The upcoming Party Congress will deliver a major reshuffle of China’s leadership and determine President Xi Jinping’s ability to implement his policy priorities over the next five years. In this... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would a stronger Xi be good for the economy? Reform implementation is likely to accelerate after the Party Congress, particularly if President Xi emerges in a stronger position. But given Xi’s reluctance to relinquish state control over key... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Election unlikely to revive Abenomics Victory for Prime Minister Abe in this month’s election would keep Japan on the same track it has been on since 2012, pursuing fiscal tightening, loose monetary policy and tentative structural reform... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would Yurinomics mean for Japan? Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope has pledged to rely less on loose fiscal and monetary policy if it wins the upcoming election. But in practice its proposals, which include delaying the sales tax hike... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn deepens, blockade hits Qatar’s economy Official GDP data show that the contraction in Saudi Arabia’s economy worsened in Q2 and our GDP Tracker suggests that downturn deepened further at the start of Q3. We expect a recovery to get... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Abe recommits to sales tax hike Prime Minister Abe has pitched the snap legislative election that he has called for next month as a plebiscite on fiscal policy. He is arguing that the sales tax hike scheduled for October 2019 should... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries are continuing to improve their budgetary positions. But Italy’s budget deficit has widened and its Government plans to... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A primer on Russia’s new fiscal rule In this Focus, we answer five key questions on Russia’s recently-approved fiscal rule, and explain what it means for the government’s deficit, debt and oil funds. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Turning point? The encouraging signs about the health of the Australian economy have continued over the past month, with employment growth gathering pace and the outlook for business investment improving. (See Chart... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Republicans flesh out tax cut proposals The unified tax proposals released by Republicans today offer more detail than before, but there are still a number of missing pieces that make it hard to estimate the overall cost of the plan... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Good news for the Chancellor in the lead-up to the Budget August’s public finances figures will come as welcome news to the Chancellor in the lead-up to the Budget on 22nd November and further increases the scope to ease back on austerity a touch. • 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures are building Some have argued that the recent jump in inflation is all about a surge in volatile food prices, with the implication that it shouldn’t have a significant bearing on monetary policy. But this ignores... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
