UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Big tax rises, but economy may end up stronger This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore... 30th October 2024 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response Despite large rise in taxes, Budget still boosts economy This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Godongwana talks up growth, but austerity is order of the day The South African Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was presented as a “pro-growth” statement, but the numbers underscore that the government has no room to loosen the fiscal stance... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: default risks have eased, but not gone away Investor sentiment towards Argentina has improved significantly in the past few months and it now looks like the government will probably be able to make the sovereign debt repayments that are due... 28th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Shell oil sale, SARB 25bp or 50bp cut next? The Nigerian authorities rejection of Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business marked the latest attempt by a multinational to divest from Nigeria – and the prospect of lower foreign investment makes... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The knowns and unknowns of the new fiscal rule The growing likelihood that the PSNFL measure of debt will form one of the Chancellor's fiscal rules in next Wednesday's Budget theoretically means she could increase borrowing by £73bn (2.3% of GDP)... 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Date set for fiscal reveal, stock frenzy boosting GDP The details of a widely anticipated fiscal stimulus package are expected to be revealed at the NPC Standing Committee’s next meeting, which has just been scheduled for 4th to 8th November. This... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2024) EM GDP growth picked up in Q3, but we expect growth to slow over the coming quarters - despite the recent stimulus announcements in China. The threat of more protectionist trade policy in the US poses... 24th October 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector set for a slowdown Saudi Arabia’s economy is making a steady recovery as solid growth in the non-oil sector offsets low oil production. Growth will continue to pick up over the coming quarters, but the drivers will... 24th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Pension referendum a risk to Uruguay’s public finances Uruguay's election on Sunday is unlikely to change the path of economic policy but will have big implications for relations with China. Arguably more important than the election itself is the outcome... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s debt facing short term gain, long term pain We expect Spain’s public debt ratio to continue falling for the next three or four years, helping to support demand for Spanish government bonds. However, further ahead its debt-to-GDP ratio is likely... 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
