Asia Chart Pack Heightened uncertainty in Malaysia post-election In a massive political upset, the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition led by Najib Razak was ousted by a resurgent opposition led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia’s 14 th... 28th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s mega-projects could be up for the chop There is growing speculation that Malaysia’s new prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, will cancel some of the huge Chinese-backed infrastructure projects approved by his predecessor. Given Malaysia’s... 28th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will ageing result in a surge in the budget deficit? New projections suggest that social security spending could rise by 8% of GDP by 2040. The government has already increased social security contributions in recent years and there is some scope to... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP still in strong position despite Karnataka setback The BJP’s failure to form a coalition despite winning by far the most seats in the Karnataka state election is a setback for the ruling national party, with the main opposition Congress and the local... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) April’s public finances figures have got the new fiscal year off to a good start and might give the Chancellor a bit more wiggle room to loosen the purse strings in the Autumn Budget. 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will rising oil prices trigger fiscal loosening in the Gulf? The recent rally in oil prices has already prompted governments across the Gulf to shift away from the harsh austerity of recent years. But long-term oil price expectations are still low and the... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: GST leaves behind a large gap to fill The decision today by the new Malaysian government to effectively abolish the Goods and Service Tax (GST) from the start of next month should provide a fiscal boost to the economy, but it will leave... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Income tax cuts not a game changer for consumption The income tax cuts announced in this week’s 2018/19 Federal Budget are not enough to prevent consumption growth in Australia from slowing this year, especially given taxpayers won’t see the bulk of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revisiting the fiscal cost of loan waivers The trend of political parties in India promising loans waivers to farmers ahead of state elections seems increasingly well entrenched. As a result, the fiscal costs are continuing to mount. We... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget response: Asking too much of the economy While the good performance of the economy has allowed Treasurer Scott Morrison to cut income taxes and project a return to a budget surplus one year ahead of schedule in the last Budget before next... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) Indonesia’s growth eased to 5.1% y/y in Q1, from 5.2%, and we see little prospect of a rebound. With policymakers running out of scope to stimulate the economy further, we expect growth to remain... 7th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget preview: Electioneering outdoes fiscal restraint While the income tax cuts that the Australian Treasurer is planning to announce in Tuesday’s Federal Budget will provide a small boost to the economy over the next couple of years, we doubt they will... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus China & Africa: Setting the record straight Perceptions of the economic ties between China and Africa are often based on inaccurate assumptions. In this Focus we debunk three key myths. The China-Africa relationship is not as state-driven, as... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The EU’s next budget and what it means for CEE The EU’s draft budget for 2021-27 released today only provided headline details but, as a rough estimate, we think that annual structural fund inflows for each of the Central and Eastern European (CEE... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Election could make Malaysia’s problems worse Despite facing a resurgent opposition, Prime Minister Najib Razak is favourite to win a third term in a general election due on 9 th May. A victory for Najib would probably lead to a short-term fiscal... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Booming land sales flatter local government finances In aggregate, local government debt ratios have been fairly stable during the past few years and there has been a clear improvement in the composition of the debt. But the picture looks less rosy once... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
