India Economics Weekly Large MSP hikes, growing fiscal concerns Confirmation this week that the government will implement large increases in the minimum support price (MSP) of key monsoon crops supports our view that rural incomes will strengthen significantly... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Strong growth likely in run-up to election Economic growth has surged in recent quarters and we expect it to remain strong over the next year or so, supported by buoyant private and government consumption ahead of the general election that is... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q2 growth set to be healthy, but slower than last year Hard data relating to euro-zone activity in Q2 have been a little disappointing so far, denting hopes that GDP growth would rebound strongly after Q1’s 0.4% quarterly expansion. Industrial production... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt sticks to orthodoxy, positive signs from the Gulf The economic agenda laid out by Egypt’s new cabinet this week suggests that, despite the improvement in the budget position over the past couple of years, it will continue to tighten fiscal policy... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC confident that UK banks can cope with Brexit The Financial Policy Committee’s (FPC’s) biannual assessment of financial stability found that the banking sector is in good health, and should be able to withstand a disorderly Brexit. As a result... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Philippines: A two-year progress report on President Duterte Two years after coming to power, President Duterte of the Philippines has not been the disaster for the economy that some feared. Growth has remained strong, while economic policy has been left in the... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB under pressure, Nigerian budget signifies little Markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes in South Africa. Policymakers have explicitly said that they will not react to currency moves until they see a lasting effect on... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook When will boom turn to bust? Fuelled by the fiscal stimulus, we expect GDP growth to be 2.9% this year but, as the stimulus fades and higher interest rates become a bigger drag on the economy, growth should slow to 2.0% in 2019... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt subsidy cuts, Saudi upgrade, OPEC meeting Hikes to fuel prices announced by the Egyptian government over the past week mean that the central bank will refrain lowering interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, growing tensions within... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) May’s public finances figures not only confirmed that the new fiscal year is off to a good start, but also that borrowing in 2017/18 was lower than previously thought. As such, the Chancellor should... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update EAC Budgets: Kenyan fiscal policy raises economic risks Kenyan policymakers’ plan to narrow their budget deficit relies on very optimistic revenue forecasts. If these are missed, concerns about Kenya’s large and growing debt burden will increase. 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack UAE the latest to loosen fiscal policy The past month has brought further signs that governments across the Gulf are responding to higher oil prices by ramping up spending. Both Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest emirates that make up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Despite the recent sell-off in peripheral European bond markets, we still expect the Fed to raise rates again tomorrow and the ECB to announce at its meeting on Thursday its plans to bring its asset... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: IMF deal imposes ambitious fiscal targets Confirmation that Argentina has reached an agreement with the IMF over a financing package will help to restore investor confidence and provide a much-needed anchor for the country’s necessary... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy resilient to renewed trade tensions The risk of a global trade war has risen in the past few weeks. President Trump has gone ahead with plans to levy tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which is likely to provoke retaliation. In... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation plans fail to take off The government’s record privatisation target set for this year is dependent in part on a smooth sale of a large stake in Air India. But with no firms having shown any serious interest in making a bid... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
