Europe Economic Outlook Outlook positive, but risks are rising Most European economies have experienced a slowdown since last year, but growth is still strong by historic standards and prospects are fairly bright. Admittedly, trade protection poses a serious... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Renewed momentum gives MPC the green light With sustained rises in real wages now in prospect, real consumer spending growth should accelerate again. Of course, Brexit-related uncertainties and their economic effects could intensify over the... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial vulnerabilities look contained The currency crises that rocked Argentina and Turkey in May and June raised fears that they would presage similar problems in other EMs. The fact that these then failed to materialise once again... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to gather pace The recovery in the MENA region will be stronger than most anticipate over the coming quarters. The Gulf economies are set to benefit from rising oil output and fiscal stimulus, while Egypt’s cyclical... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal discipline slipping in Brazil The 2019 budget guidelines approved by Brazil’s Congress this week diluted measures to contain spending and reinforce our view that appetite for economic reform in the legislature is waning. Even if... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil’s recovery? The hit to the Brazilian economy from May’s truck drivers’ strike already seems to be reversing. But the recent tightening of financial conditions means the recovery over the second half of the year... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Flood damage, Tokyo’s innovation crown Early signs are that this week’s floods in western Japan, for all their terrible human cost, have had only a small economic impact, though the affected regions are manufacturing centres. Meanwhile... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery will peter out in 2019 Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen over the second half of 2018, but we think that the consensus view that this year’s performance will mark the start of a multi-year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy lost momentum at the start of Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed a touch in April, but we think that this will prove temporary. Growth is likely to pick-up sharply over the coming months as the Kingdom... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Healthcare insurance scheme will have limited impact In principle, Prime Minister Modi’s plan to introduce a health insurance scheme could bring numerous benefits, including from a narrow economic perspective. But the government is allocating very... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war not the only headwind to Asian growth In the event that rising trade tensions lead to a significant fall in US imports from China, it would have a sizeable impact, not just on China, but also on other countries such as Taiwan and Malaysia... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Subdued inflation ties BoJ’s hands We expect GDP growth to be broadly in line with trend both this year and next. The labour market will remain very tight and wage growth may strengthen further. But sluggish demand after next year’s... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Trade strains build The main impact for EMs so far from rising global trade tensions and risk aversion has been on financial markets rather than on economic growth. But the resulting tightening of financial conditions –... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to make of Erdogan’s new economic powers? Moves over the past 24 hours by Turkey’s President Erdogan to consolidate his power is likely to result in pressure for looser monetary and fiscal policy, but this will ultimately come at the cost of... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Domestic headwinds building Sentiment about China’s economic prospects has worsened recently as trade tensions have escalated. The tariffs announced so far won’t have a big impact though. Instead, we expect economic growth to... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo makes the right noises Mexican financial markets have rallied this week following some business-friendly noises from left-wing president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), but we’d be wary of reading too much into... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
