US Economic Outlook Consumers beginning to feel the pinch We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but... 25th June 2024 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update How might the ECB respond to a French fiscal crisis? If the results of France’s election, or actions of the next French government, trigger contagion to other euro-zone countries’ bond markets, the ECB could respond by purchasing their bonds using the... 25th June 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Manufacturing boom to shore up growth a while longer China’s economy is on course to expand by 5.5% this year, buoyed by policy support and strong exports. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. 25th June 2024 · 15 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (June 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to... 25th June 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Next government to benefit from economic tailwind The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth... 25th June 2024 · 18 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June 2024) Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the... 25th June 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GNU reform challenge, Kenya tax U-turn The government of national unity (GNU) formed by South Africa’s ANC and DA has led to a rally in local financial markets, but forming this unity government may prove to be the easy part. The necessary... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook deteriorates further This week the CBO released new projections showing that the Federal deficit is expected to be $1.9trn, or 6.7% of GDP, in the current 2024 fiscal year that ends this September. That projection is more... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Netherlands set to outperform the euro-zone average With all eyes on France, it is easy to forget that the Netherlands has also been experiencing political disruption over the last 12 months. But politics there has proved less disruptive to markets and... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s IMF review, cautious central banks The eighth review of Argentina’s IMF programme published this week is a whole-hearted endorsement of President Milei’s economic record. That said, the Fund called on Argentine authorities to take... 21st June 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Excessive deficits; lessons from Italy’s 2018 mini crisis The European Commission this week announced its intention to put five euro-zone countries, including France and Italy, into Excessive Deficit Procedures. This will concentrate investors’ minds on the... 21st June 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai budget boost, Singapore’s cooling jobs market Most countries in Asia are planning to tighten fiscal policy as they aim to put government finances on a more secure footing following the pandemic. One exception to this is Thailand, which this week... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk 1720432800 Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down?
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (May 2024) May’s public finances figures delivered some better news on the fiscal position after the recent run of worse-than-expected outturns. However, they do little to reduce the fiscal constraints that will... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: a close look at external financing and debt relief The G7 loan to Ukraine announced last week and the narrowing window to approve a new debt relief package once the payment suspension with private creditors ends in August has shone the spotlight on... 20th June 2024 · 6 mins read
