Canada Economic Outlook Economy vulnerable to rate hikes Economic growth looks set to remain healthy in the near term, which will prompt the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates twice more. But the Bank is underestimating both the extent to which... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: Fiscal policy needs to tighten The ECB’s loose monetary stance isn’t compatible with Slovakia’s advanced stage of the business cycle and it looks like the government will respond by tightening fiscal policy to prevent the economy... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A good year for growth The surprising strength of economic growth in the second quarter has led us to revise up our forecasts for GDP growth in the 2018 calendar year from 2.5% to 3.2% for Australia and from 2.5% to 2.7%... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Turmoil in Argentina underscores policy challenges The surprise resignation of Argentina’s central bank governor, Luis Caputo, and nationwide strikes – in protest against President Macri’s austerity plan – underscore the difficulty of fixing the... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French 2019 Budget will support domestic demand The draft French Budget for 2019 confirmed that the Government intends to tighten underlying fiscal policy a little. But several of the planned measures should serve to stimulate private spending... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks in tightening mode Central banks in Emerging Europe shifted into tightening mode this month as policymakers in Turkey, Russia and Ukraine hiked interest rates in response to pressure on their currencies. The Czech MPC... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Election campaigning gets underway in Indonesia Campaigning ahead of next April’s presidential election in Indonesia officially got underway at the weekend, with President Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) set to take on former general, Prabowo... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Haddad mimicking Amlo, Argentina’s bigger IMF deal Support for Fernando Haddad, the presidential candidate of Brazil’s Workers’ Party, has risen over the past week and recent comments suggest that he is trying to distance himself from the party’s left... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s stimulus plan: Doing more with less President Ramaphosa’s US$28bn infrastructure fund is mostly made up of already-committed public spending, and the economic effect will be limited. Lower-profile reforms to visa rules, mining... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey underwhelms, Russia budget, Hungary rates reaction The New Economy Program presented by Turkey’s finance minister on Thursday included more realistic economic forecasts, but it failed to build on the central bank’s interest rate hike last week and... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) Borrowing was higher than expected in August, marking the end of a run of strong figures. Despite the rise in borrowing in August, it is still on track to come in below the Office for Budget... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia slipping into crisis, SARB holds back Zambia’s debt worries escalated this week, and it’s increasingly difficult to see how the country can avoid a full-blown crisis. Elsewhere, yesterday’s MPC vote in South Africa was closer than we’d... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon fears escalate, Saudi happy with $80pb oil The sharp widening in Lebanese dollar bond spreads this week suggests that investors are increasingly fearful that the country is lurching towards an economic crisis and, in the event of a fresh... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to expect from three more years of Abenomics? Mr Abe will remain Prime Minister for another three years. That means fiscal policy will probably be tightened further, monetary policy will remain loose and policymakers may take some further steps... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s 2019 budget: devil is in the detail Argentina’s 2019 federal budget presented to Congress last night contains a large fiscal squeeze and, if implemented in full, would stabilise the public debt ratio. However, some key IMF requests have... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina budget concerns, Brazil election heating up Argentina’s 2019 budget will reportedly contain some much-needed spending cuts, but key IMF requests are conspicuous by their absence. Meanwhile, Brazil’s election race is beginning to heat up, but... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
