Europe Economics Update Why Italy is not the new Greece While Italy and Greece have some similarities, the fundamental cause of Italy’s problems is not fiscal laxity but consistently weak economic growth. So rather than resulting in a sudden crisis, as has... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does that latest jump in oil prices mean for EMs? The rise in oil prices to $85pb brings most major oil producers’ budgets close to balance (and in a few cases a large surplus) and could open the door for fiscal policy to be loosened in a few... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s banks still the weakest link Amid the concern about the state of Italy’s public finances, the banks remain the country’s weakest link. Indeed, despite improvements over the past few years, the banking sector is still too weak to... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek budget highlights risk of fiscal slippage Greece’s draft budget for 2019 suggests that the country is taking its fiscal targets much more seriously than Italy. But a closer look at the proposed measures implies some fiscal slippage, which... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of higher oil prices We don’t expect the recent jump in oil prices to be sustained but if we are wrong and prices stay at $85pb, annual export revenues in the Gulf would be $200bn higher than in 2017. Governments would... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the new Nafta, Amlo and receding policy risks The announcement of a trilateral trade deal with the US and Canada removes one major source of uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s outlook. The focus will increasingly shift onto the policies of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s GDP growth forecasts are far too optimistic The economic assumptions underpinning Italy’s budget forecasts look over-optimistic. As a result, while the Government expects the public debt ratio to fall over the next few years, we think that it... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates, tightening cycle not over yet The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hiked interest rates by a further 100bp on Saturday and made clear in its policy statement that tackling the country’s mounting external imbalances remain its priority... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & IMF, Brazil’s fiscal woes, Mexico-US deal The market reaction to Argentina’s revamped IMF deal suggests that, while investors believe that sovereign default risks over the next year or so have receded, they remain elevated further out... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s fiscal outlook worse than headlines suggest We think that Italy’s budget deficit will be even wider over the next few years than the Government’s projections imply. As a result, we expect bond yields to keep on rising. But unless yields surge... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC stands pat, on-budget fiscal support maxed out The People’s Bank clearly doesn’t feel under great pressure to “follow the Fed”. It left its policy rates on hold this week after the US Fed raised rates and we expect it to cut rates in the coming... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: How a default could unfold Zambia’s debt situation is deteriorating rapidly, and concerns about hidden debts mean that the situation could be much worse than it appears. Given low debt servicing costs, a missed payment is... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s revised IMF deal The larger-than-expected increase in the size of Argentina’s revamped IMF credit line reduces debt rollover risks and is likely to lead to a rally in local markets when they open later today. The... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier market sovereign debt fears on the rise Sovereign balance sheets in most of the large emerging economies are in reasonable shape, but those in a few of the smaller Frontier Market economies are very fragile. And investors’ concerns have... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to look for in Argentina’s new IMF deal With Argentina reportedly set to announce a new and improved IMF credit line later today, in this Update we outline what investors should look out for in the deal. 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
