Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro backtracking, Argentina’s austerity Business friendly candidate Jair Bolsonaro looks on course to win the second round of Brazil’s presidential election later this month, but recent noises from the campaign trail have called into... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Banks still struggling, another look at Japan’s debts The government has indicated that it will be more lenient in applying antimonopoly legislation when assessing regional bank mergers. That should pave the way for a further consolidation of... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Debt: Is there another crisis looming? A widespread US debt crisis is unlikely but, over the next few years, over-leverage in the non-financial corporate sector, particularly the oil & gas, utilities and telecoms industries, could trigger... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rating downgrades are another threat for Italy Rating downgrades as soon as the end of this month may well push Italian bond yields higher, with adverse effects on the economy and the banks. Further downgrades to junk status seem feasible in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Growth to slow further despite policy easing Policymakers have responded to growing signs of weakness in China’s domestic economy by ramping up policy support. But with momentum still slowing and trade tensions escalating, growth will not... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How would a deal with the IMF help Pakistan As the price for a deal with Pakistan, the IMF is likely to demand a further sharp tightening in fiscal and monetary policy as well as structural reforms aimed at raising more revenue and improving... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Good times continue Domestic demand will pick up speed ahead of next year’s sales tax hike, extending one of Japan’s strongest runs of growth since the 1980s, and price pressures will strengthen. But weaker domestic... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro boost to hit political realities The strong showing for Jair Bolsonaro and his party in yesterday’s general election in Brazil has increased the chances of pro-market reform. This is likely to prompt an initial rally in local markets... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Growth up, unjustified Brexit optimism, the end of austerity? The latest evidence points to GDP growth picking up from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.5% in Q3. That would make it the strongest quarter since the end of 2016. Even so, the economy would still be on track for a... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC facing RMB test, tax crackdown intensifying The People’s Bank faces a test when it sets the renminbi fix on Monday morning. With onshore markets closed for the past week, a wedge has opened between where the renminbi last stood onshore and its... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s minor backtrack offers little reassurance The Italian Government’s fiscal projections, published this week, are based on overly-optimistic assumptions for GDP growth. We expect Italian bond yields to keep rising as the budgetary position... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s revised GDP, Uganda hikes, Rand faces tough month New GDP figures have presented a more flattering picture of Ghana’s economy, though obviously actual output remains unchanged. The Bank of Uganda hiked its key interest rate this week, adding to signs... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Sensex has further to fall, winter MSP hikes contained We think that the recent fall in Indian equities – down by another 4% this week – has further to run. Domestically, concerns over the scale of balance sheet problems in the shadow banking sector will... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Country divergence looks set to continue Business and consumer surveys suggest that growth in the euro-zone as a whole will continue at a fairly healthy pace of around 0.4% per quarter in the near term. But there is a growing divergence by... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Weak recovery, growing debt problems Angola will return to growth in 2019, but the recovery will probably be weaker than most expect. And we doubt that the worrying debt position will improve. Whereas the IMF expects that the public debt... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
