Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier external risks still a big concern A handful of the more vulnerable Frontier Markets, including Ukraine, Pakistan and Bahrain, have received (or are close to getting) IMF or bilateral funding, but external risks remain a key concern... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Hammond’s luck is in, rates on hold, Brexit a hindrance The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will hand the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, a get-out-of-jail-free card by slashing its forecast for the deficit this year in Monday’s Budget. This will allow... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Budget 2018 - Tax Ready Reckoner This Tax Ready Reckoner illustrates the impact of various tax changes on the public finances, allowing the magnitude of any policy changes announced in the Chancellor’s Budget speech on Monday to be... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poor election results to prompt Polish fiscal splurge The worse-than-expected performance of the ruling PiS party in Poland’s local elections last weekend is likely to prompt policymakers in Warsaw to ramp up social spending ahead of next year’s... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No quick fix for Pakistan, Korea slowdown to persist Pakistan this week secured a US$6bn loan from Saudi Arabia and has plans to court Chinese money. These deals may help paper over the cracks, but they won’t solve the economy’s balance of payments... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s budget targets growth, while Nigeria tightens South Africa’s new finance minister used this week’s budget statement to signal a shift away from further austerity, suggesting that Pretoria is prioritising support for the weak economy. Nigerian... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil and Argentina: reform hopes rising… for now The sharp rallies in the Argentine peso and Brazilian real reflect growing optimism that economic policymaking will improve in both countries, but markets seem to be looking through the political... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Region set for a temporary rebound The recovery in the Middle East and North Africa will gather pace over the rest of this year and in early 2019, but growth will peak sooner than most expect. Egypt’s cyclical upturn should continue... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Mboweni puts growth ahead of fiscal targets The government’s decision to accept a wider deficit rather than tighten policy to meet previous targets will push up debt levels. But so long as bond yields don’t rise sharply (which we doubt is... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Shadow bank concerns come to the fore India’s shadow banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past few weeks, triggered by news that the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) Group is likely to miss several... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More tax cuts, less infrastructure spending It comes as no surprise that Chinese officials are responding to slower growth by easing fiscal policy. But an increased focus on tax cuts and the lack of a revival in off-budget borrowing suggests... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Budget speech will focus on deficit target South Africa’s new finance minister will probably announce further fiscal tightening in tomorrow’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in order to meet existing targets. This will likely placate... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Preview – waiting for the Brexit fog to clear The greater-than-expected improvement in the public finances over the past few months, should give the Chancellor a windfall to spend at next week’s Budget. But we suspect that the Chancellor will... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No end in sight for Italian fiscal stand-off The Italian Government’s reply to the European Commission suggests that there is unlikely to be a quick resolution to the current fiscal impasse. We expect yields to rise in the coming years. 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow and uneven recovery Growth in Latin America as a whole is likely to strengthen over the coming quarters, but with monetary and fiscal policy tightening in most countries, it will be weaker than most expect. We’re... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: New IMF deal a positive, but still not in the clear The announcement on Friday that Ukraine has come to an agreement with the IMF to replace its current bailout package should reduce risks posed by the government’s large upcoming FX debt repayments... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
