Latin America Economics Weekly Upcoming Amlo flashpoints, Brazil’s pension hurdles The decision by Mexican president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) to cancel the Texcoco airport construction spooked local markets, and upcoming decisions on the 2019 budget and oil field... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth to rebound in Q4 Delays to car production appear to have had a big impact on GDP in Q3, particularly in Germany and Italy. But these effects should be temporary, so we expect growth to rebound in Q4. This suggests... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget package will boost growth (and rates) The fiscal loosening announced in the Autumn Budget has prompted us to raise our forecasts for GDP growth and interest rates. In our base case, which assumes a Brexit deal is secured, we now expect... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi loosens fiscal policy, Tunisia reforms face delay Data released this week confirmed that higher oil prices have prompted Saudi Arabia’s government to loosen fiscal policy further and we expect this to continue over the next few quarters, boosting... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How bad is Brazil’s fiscal problem? President-elect Jair Bolsonaro has touched on all the right areas needed to get Brazil’s public debt ratio off its current unsustainable trajectory. In this Focus, we answer five questions in order to... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Crisis in Sri Lanka is bad news for the economy The current political crisis in Sri Lanka, which has seen the country’s president, Maithripala Sirisena, replace Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe with former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, comes at a... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional slowdown to continue Growth in most of Emerging Europe will continue to slow over the next couple of years, and by more than most expect. The slowdown is set to be sharpest in Turkey, where the recent currency crisis will... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget improves consumer outlook Things are finally looking up for consumers. Not only did yesterday’s Budget provide a welcome boost to households’ finances, but a recovery in real pay growth now appears to be taking root. 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK budget not a sign of global policy loosening The fiscal “giveaway” announced by the UK government yesterday has generated a lot of headlines, but it is trivial in a global context, or compared to the US stimulus. For advanced economies overall... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political risks back on the radar Political developments have re-emerged as a key risk to the region’s economic outlook in recent weeks. The economic fallout for Saudi Arabia from the Khashoggi scandal should be limited, at least in... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Budget plans put focus on weak fiscal positions Policymakers in South Africa and Nigeria both laid out fiscal plans this month, but their responses to weak revenues were very different. South Africa’s new finance minister announced a wider deficit... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Response – Hammond splashes the cash As expected, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) gave the Chancellor a helping hand in the Autumn Budget, allowing him to deliver a number of expensive spending pledges, while still managing to... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi to break through 7.0 before long The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have stepped up intervention recently to support the renminbi as it has approached 7.0 to the US dollar. Many are talking about that line as a psychological... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms unlikely to lead to another fiscal stimulus With the Democrats likely to win control of the House, while the Republicans maintain a slim majority in the Senate, the chances of another fiscal stimulus being agreed after the midterm elections... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Budget 2018 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key official forecasts and measures announced during the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget speech at 3.30pm Monday 29th October, and to provide... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro’s victory: three things to watch now Comments from Brazil’s president-elect suggesting that the central bank should target the exchange rate have made headlines today but his post-election comments otherwise point to orthodox... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
