Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine political risk, Levy’s BNDES challenge Argentina’s Senate this week passed the government’s IMF-endorsed austerity budget for next year, but bond markets are starting to share our concerns over mounting political risks surrounding October... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe considers response to Italy The EU looks set to launch disciplinary proceedings against Italy, perhaps as soon as next week. But unless the situation in Italy escalates dramatically, the ECB is unlikely to respond. Instead, the... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy contracting, Japan still loves cash The contraction in Q3 GDP that was confirmed this week is likely to be followed by a rebound over coming quarters. But the bigger picture is that growth momentum has weakened since last year and... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tosh analysis & good news from labour market The Australian Labor Party’s fiscal proposals may not be quite as restrictive as we had thought. But we still believe that fiscal policy would be tighter if Labor wins the next Federal election... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Chances rise of an “orderly” no deal News that Theresa May could soon face a leadership challenge is the latest twist in the Brexit saga, but even if she survives, the key point is that the chances of her deal being passed by parliament... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Markets, not the EU, could change Italy’s plans The small changes that Italy’s Government has made to its Budget are unlikely to placate the European Commission. So Italy looks set for greater budget oversight, which could eventually lead to... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Which countries are running out of fiscal firepower? Most governments in Emerging Asia have room to support their economies by loosening fiscal policy further in the event that growth continues to disappoint. However, a few countries, namely Malaysia... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Labor’s fiscal plans would strengthen case for low rates We estimate that Labor’s plans to tighten fiscal policy would dampen consumer spending by around 0.3 percentage points in both 2019 and 2020, shaving 0.2 percentage points off GDP in each of those... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five questions on Colombia’s tax reform The tax reform introduced to Colombia’s congress is unlikely to pass in its current form, but even a diluted version would result in tighter fiscal policy, higher inflation and, ultimately, more... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy-EU tensions set to intensify Tensions between Italy and the EU are likely to escalate next week. Indeed, the Government has until Tuesday to submit a re-drafted budget, and despite coming under pressure from European policymakers... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s mixed surveys, Mozambique’s debt The raft of survey releases in South Africa this week provided contradictory messages, but on balance we think that conditions continued to improve at the start of Q4. Meanwhile, the news that the... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q3 growth hit by temporary drop in car production The slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth to just 0.2% in Q3 came as a major disappointment, but there are good reasons to expect the economic expansion to regain a little pace in the quarters... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms don’t change the economic outlook The Democrats were widely expected to win control of the House in yesterday’s midterm elections and the results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock. President Donald Trump and the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts Q4 with a whimper rather than a bang The large fall in the PMIs in October suggests that the economy slowed sharply at the start of Q4. Admittedly, some slowdown from rolling three-month GDP growth of 0.7% in July and August always... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Debt risk building Kenya’s plans for another US$2.5bn eurobond have added to our concerns about its burgeoning public debt. While a major debt crisis should be avoided if the country’s economy continues to grow rapidly... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s FX reserve plan doesn’t stack up Concerns that “super minister” Paulo Guedes’ plan to reduce the Brazilian government’s interest payments by selling FX reserves would increase external vulnerabilities look overdone. However, the plan... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
