US Economics Update Budget dispute raises risk of debt ceiling crisis in 2019 A partial government shutdown this Friday would probably have only a modest impact on the economy. With the current gridlock only likely to intensify once the Democrats assume control of the House... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: President Buhari promises policy continuity President Muhammadu Buhari’s 2019 spending plan would cut the federal deficit and leave key policies unchanged. Given political uncertainties, however, today’s speech is a poor guide to policy... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget: wishful thinking Saudi Arabia’s budget for 2019 outlined further fiscal loosening but the government seems to be relying on optimistic assumptions for oil prices to rise to almost $80pb. If prices stay low as we... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Student loans won’t tie the Chancellor’s hands Today’s announcement of a change to how student loans will be classified in the public finances increases the risk that the Government misses its main fiscal target. But this shouldn’t cause investors... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Amlo’s 2019 budget: tacking back to the centre? The prudent 2019 budget presented by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) at the weekend is probably an attempt to try to get investors back onside after a series of policy moves which... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Government only offers Christmas crumbs The Coalition Government indicated in today’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook that it will present some sweeteners ahead of the upcoming election. Even so, fiscal policy will become more... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s first budget, Argentina in recession Mexico’s 2019 budget that will be presented to Congress on Saturday looks set to (unrealistically) target a primary budget surplus. But, more importantly, if spending is projected to rise by much more... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook improving, housing outlook bleak The rapid improvement in the budget deficit will allow the government to use the upcoming Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook to deliver some early Christmas presents. But the Treasurer will probably... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly BJP losses and new RBI governor raise policy risk The state election results announced this week were a clear setback for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP, as they suggest that goodwill is fading ahead of next year’s general election. While we still think... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s fiscal troubles are not over Italy’s government has agreed to reduce its budget deficit forecast for next year, which reduces the risk of a crisis in the near term. But this does not spell the end of its fiscal troubles. With the... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s measures unlikely to boost the economy Protests in France are likely to put a serious dent in GDP growth in Q4. And while the giveaways announced yesterday will boost disposable incomes next year, any positive effect on the economy is... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections raise prospect of populist shift by Modi A disappointing set of state election results for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP suggests that the ruling national party has lost some goodwill and the risk now is that, in response, fiscal (and... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth slowing, but wage growth rising The latest data on economic activity in the euro-zone have been weak, but policymakers at the ECB will have been encouraged by the continued acceleration in wage growth. At its meeting on Thursday... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3, Breakdown) The breakdown of euro-zone Q3 GDP suggests that the slowdown was down to more than just disruption to car production. Nevertheless, for now we still think that quarterly growth will probably pick up a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs can afford to loosen fiscal policy? Most of the major EMs have ample fiscal firepower. This is particularly true in Asia and we think fiscal policy is likely to be loosened in much of the region next year, which should cushion slowdowns... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising in Italy After contracting in Q3, activity surveys suggest that Italy’s economy is on the brink of recession. Indeed, the Composite PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in November, which on past form points to GDP... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
