Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt needs to stick to frugality to ease debt fears Egypt’s government faces a likely further rise in debt servicing costs over the coming year. But the good news is that the budget for the 2024/25 fiscal year (which started this week) reaffirmed the... 3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: public finance concerns here to stay The recently-published fiscal plans of Colombia’s government seem to have alleviated some near-term fiscal concerns, but we think the medium-term budget and debt projections are based on rosy... 2nd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany no longer immune to budget trouble Much of the recent focus has been on France’s political turmoil, but Germany has had its own troubles with disagreement over the 2025 budget threatening the survival of the governing coalition. While... 1st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia and the possible implications of MbS as king Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not... 1st July 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update First round results of France’s parliamentary election The preliminary results of the first round of voting are broadly in line with the final opinion polls, showing that Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition has lost out to both the left and right. But a... 30th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most... 28th June 2024 · 0 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumption support still falling short New government guidelines on how to create "new consumption scenarios" are still largely focused on supply-side reform, while little is being done to address demand weakness. Alongside a ramp-up in... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for... 28th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA coalition cracks, Kenya protests, Ghana debt deal Disagreements between the South Africa’s largest party, the ANC, and its main partner in the government of national unity, the DA, over cabinet posts reinforces our point that the coalition is fragile... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jun. 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy has regained some momentum in recent quarters and should continue to do relatively... 28th June 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much fiscal ‘headroom’ will the next government have? If the polls are correct and Labour wins the election, the policies it implements and when it implements them will depend in part on the ‘headroom’ against the fiscal rules it is given by the Office... 27th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM easing cycle moving into a new phase Emerging markets in Asia and parts of Europe will continue to perform well and better than most expect this year, but we think that Latin America will lag behind. The EM monetary easing cycle is... 27th June 2024 · 26 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower rates to drive stronger GDP growth next year Below potential GDP growth and falling core inflation will persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with the policy rate settling at 2.5% next year. Lower interest rates should, in... 26th June 2024 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA won’t cut interest rates until mid-2025 Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation... 26th June 2024 · 20 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya protests could reignite sovereign default fears The escalating protests in Kenya will add to the near-term headwinds facing economic activity as well as raise further question marks over the government’s ability to push through fiscal consolidation... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
