Africa Economics Weekly SARB rate cuts, Nigeria’s optimistic budget The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) struck an optimistic tone when it cut its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75% this week and we expect more easing from here. But a potential lowering of the inflation... 22nd November 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s challenging budget, G20 summit The sharp reduction in the budget deficit envisaged in Mexico’s draft budget for 2025 will have been welcomed as a sign that the new Sheinbaum administration is taking fiscal discipline seriously. But... 22nd November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal spending jumps, but boost will be short-lived Fiscal spending accelerated sharply in October, boosting both retail sales and infrastructure investment. It will remain strong in the near-term given that local governments still have plenty of... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Romania’s election: macro stability in the balance Romania will elect a new government over the coming weeks at a time when the economy is performing poorly, inflation is running above target, and macroeconomic stability depends on policymakers... 21st November 2024 · 22 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s economy to accelerate Morocco’s weaker economic performance this year is likely to be a blip. Buoyed by low and stable inflation, looser monetary policy, and a burgeoning manufacturing sector, we expect Morocco’s economy... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Oct. 2024) October’s disappointing public finances figures underline the fiscal challenge that the Chancellor still faces, despite the big increases in spending and taxes announced in the Budget. And while the... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s debt risks revisited A year ago, we published an in-depth report arguing that the calm prevailing at the time around sovereign debt risks in Latin America wouldn’t last and that public debt dynamics would deteriorate... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in the Andes to disappoint The latest data suggest that Colombia and Chile underperformed Peru’s economy in Q3. Looking ahead, we think that lower prices for key commodity exports combined with relatively tight fiscal stances... 19th November 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus next steps, lower growth forecast Hopes for fiscal stimulus have so far amounted to very little. Wider efforts to support growth are still ongoing and we should find out more about the leadership’s priorities early next month. But a... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal risks cloud upbeat outlook for Brazil sovereign bonds We think investors are now overestimating how tight Brazil’s central bank will keep policy over the coming years, so we expect local-currency bond yields there to fall by end-2025. Still, fiscal... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Video presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economy 1731502800 Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth discusses how Donald Trump’s return could influence the US economic outlook in this 22-minute video presentation.
Japan Economics Update How much power will the DPP have? Our base case is that the LDP/Komeito coalition will be able to push through major pieces of legislation, including a supplementary budget by year-end, with only minor concessions to the Democratic... 13th November 2024 · 5 mins read
