UK Economics Focus Households able to spend, but not yet willing A strong labour market, rising real wages and more supportive fiscal policy should mean that households will be in a pretty good position over the next two years, even if interest rates rise. And once... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Going it alone on monetary and fiscal policy Two of our big non-consensus calls are that in time fiscal policy will become more supportive for the economy than the Chancellor’s current plans suggest and that interest rates will rise a bit more... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Support for first-time home buyers may come too late A renewed increase in public support for first-time home buyers would probably result in a rebound in home sales and house prices. But with federal elections due by May, any step-up in government... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly IMF too optimistic, Goyal won’t alter the budget The IMF released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Fund is forecasting seems... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect from the interim budget The finance ministry will be keen to include some election sweeteners in the interim budget that is due on 1st February. But it will also want to demonstrate fiscal rectitude. The most likely outcome... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro puts trade ahead of fiscal reform at Davos Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro’s headline speech in Davos today suggests that opening up the economy to international trade will be a major priority, something that would boost the economy’s long... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) & Public Finances (Dec.) The labour market figures for November were reassuring as they showed no sign of any hit to firms’ hiring from Brexit. And with pay growth also strong, households remain well placed to increase... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten very slowly We expect GDP growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics to slow this year and next. As a result, price pressures should generally remain subdued and central banks look set to raise interest rates... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A broad-based slowdown EM GDP growth has started to slow and will be weaker than most expect in the coming quarters. Domestic strains are growing following previous policy tightening and external headwinds are building... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Exports to remain weak, Philippines’ budget impasse The latest export data for Asia paint a glum picture, with December figures showing exports fell in y/y terms in China, Singapore, Indonesia, Korea, Taiwan and India. With global growth likely to slow... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Growth likely to slow further in 2019 The latest manufacturing PMIs add to the evidence that economic growth in Switzerland and Sweden will continue to slow. The Swiss index is consistent with annual growth in industrial production of... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Stimulus won’t prevent further economic slowdown Officials have stepped up policy support in response to faltering domestic momentum. But with credit now growing at the weakest pace in more than a decade, the economy will not stabilise until at... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Downside risks are mounting The euro-zone has shifted down a gear but has not (yet) gone into reverse. Italy probably experienced a technical recession last year and Germany only narrowly avoided one. More importantly, the... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weakest growth in a decade, rate cuts by year-end Emerging Asia this year is likely to grow at its weakest rate since the global financial crisis. Although fiscal policy should help to support growth in most of the region, this is likely to be offset... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
