India Chart Pack Pre-election loosening to provide short-lived support Measures to loosen both fiscal and monetary policy announced this month could provide a small boost to demand in the near-term. The finance ministry made a clear bid in the interim budget to shore up... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: a primer on pension reform Rumours about the shape of the Brazilian government’s pension reform that will be presented to congress on Wednesday suggest that it is ambitious and would, if implemented in full, stabilise the... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The policy response to a no deal Brexit As demand and supply would both drop after a no deal Brexit, it’s not obvious how policy should respond. But our view that the drop in demand would last longer than any fall in supply suggests the... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) GDP growth in Thailand picked up in Q4, but it is likely to struggle for momentum in the quarters ahead due to weaker external demand. The key risk to the outlook is the possibility of unrest if the... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Things might get worse before they get better It has been a worrying week for the economy. The Q4 GDP figures bore out the story that the global economic slowdown and Brexit worries are weighing on growth. And it increasingly looks like Brexit... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria goes to the polls, South Africa awaits budget speech Nigeria’s presidential election on Saturday offers a choice between two clearly distinct policy options. The result will be close, with the winner probably announced on Monday. Elsewhere, South Africa... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US government debt unlikely to lose its appeal The news that China’s share of US Treasury holdings has fallen to a 12-year low, alongside the surging Federal budget deficit, has prompted the usual warnings that the US will struggle to find buyers... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Guedes’ ambitious pension bill, Banxico statements Details of Brazilian Finance Minister Paulo Guedes’ pension reform unveiled this week are impressive, but political realities could yet scupper these plans. Elsewhere, despite the hawkish statement... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German stimulus no game changer for euro-zone With the euro-zone economy slowing and the ECB short of ammunition, there will be growing calls for a big fiscal stimulus from Germany. However, we suspect that the German government will fall short... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising Economic activity finished last year on a weak note and most business surveys suggest that things did not improve in January. Italy went back into recession in the second half of 2018 and the evidence... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stimulus far smaller than in past downturns China looks likely to introduce only about half as much fiscal and monetary stimulus in response to the current downturn as it did in 2015/16. Any rebound in growth will be much more tepid as a result... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Waiting for the handbrake to be released Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio will soon start to rise Italy’s economy would need to grow more quickly than it has over the past twenty years to prevent the public debt ratio from rising. Given the country’s demographics and poor productivity performance... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s budget surplus, CBRT more hawkish The budget surplus recorded in Russia in 2018 has put the spotlight on austerity measures, but it actually looks like fiscal policy will provide more support to the economy this year than it did in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Interim budget plans lack substance The finance ministry made a clear bid in the interim budget today to shore up popular support ahead of the general election with proposals to boost rural incomes and cut income tax. But it is also... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Universal Basic Income is worthy but unfeasible The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in India has gained attention again this week. While a UBI could go a long way towards eradicating poverty and reducing the problems with the current welfare... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
